FA Tartu Kalev - Kuressaare II prediction 21 September 2025

The FA Tartu Kalev vs Kuressaare II prediction for the Esiliiga B match on September 21, 2025, at 12:00 UTC points strongly towards a home victory. Based on the available data, FA Tartu Kalev enters this fixture as the clear favorite, with a calculated win probability of 65%. Kuressaare II faces an uphill battle, given their poor recent form and a historically one-sided head-to-head record.

Team Form

FA Tartu Kalev's recent form is mixed, showing a pattern of 'W, L, L, L, L' in their last five matches. Their most recent outing was a dominant 10-2 home victory against Tallinna JK Legion on Jul 12, 2026. However, prior to that, they suffered four consecutive defeats, including a 3-4 home loss to Viljandi Tulevik and a 2-3 loss to Johvi FC Phoenix. Kuressaare II's form is similarly poor, also recording 'W, L, L, L, L'. Their last match was a 2-1 away win against Keila on Mar 29, 2026, but this was preceded by four straight losses in Esiliiga B, where they conceded 13 goals.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors FA Tartu Kalev. In 7 previous meetings, FA Tartu Kalev has won 5 times, Kuressaare II has won once, and there has been 1 draw. The most recent encounter was this exact fixture on Sep 21, 2025, which FA Tartu Kalev won 3-1. They also secured a 4-0 away victory on Aug 17, 2025, and a 3-0 away win on May 25, 2025. Kuressaare II's only win in this series came on Mar 10, 2024, a 2-1 away result.

League Table Positions

In the overall Esiliiga B standings, FA Tartu Kalev sits in 8th place with 22 points from 18 matches (7 wins, 1 draw, 10 losses). Kuressaare II is not listed in the top 10 of the provided table, indicating a lower position. At home, FA Tartu Kalev is stronger, ranked 8th with 13 points from 8 games (4 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses) and a positive goal difference of +6 (17 scored, 11 conceded). Their away form is weaker, ranked 7th with 9 points from 10 games.

Win Probability: FA Tartu Kalev or Kuressaare II?

Based on a comprehensive analysis of the available data, the win probabilities for this match are calculated as follows: FA Tartu Kalev has a 65% chance of winning, the draw is at 20%, and Kuressaare II has a 15% chance. This calculation is grounded in the overwhelming head-to-head record (5 wins for FA Tartu Kalev in 7 games), the home advantage where FA Tartu Kalev has a solid record, and the poor recent form of Kuressaare II. While no live odds were provided in the data to serve as a base, the historical matchup dominance and league standing disparity strongly support FA Tartu Kalev as the most likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Specific bookmaker odds are not available in the provided data. However, based on the stats, bookmakers would likely see FA Tartu Kalev as the strong favorite. The final prediction is a home win for FA Tartu Kalev. The head-to-head history, where they have consistently scored multiple goals against Kuressaare II, combined with the visitors' leaky defense in recent Esiliiga B matches, suggests a comfortable victory for the home side.