Extremadura UD - Aguilas FC prediction 14 March 2026

Extremadura UD faces Aguilas FC on March 14, 2026, in the Spanish Segunda Federacion. Based on recent form and head-to-head record, Extremadura UD enters as the clear favorite with a 60% win probability. This prediction breaks down the key stats to help you make an informed bet.

Team Form

Extremadura UD is in outstanding shape, winning four of its last five matches and drawing one. The most recent results include a 2-1 away win at Linares Deportivo, a 4-2 home victory over La Union Atletico, and a 3-2 away triumph at Yeclano Deportivo. The only small blemish was a 0-0 draw at Xerez, but overall the team is scoring freely and looks confident.

Aguilas FC comes into this match with a steadier but less spectacular run: two wins and three draws in the last five outings. They drew 0-0 with UD Poblense twice in late May 2026, and also drew 0-0 at home against Poblense on May 24. Before that, they beat Utebo 2-1 at home and 2-1 away. While defensively solid, they have struggled to turn draws into wins against organized opponents.

Head-to-Head Record

Extremadura UD has dominated this fixture historically, winning both previous meetings without conceding a draw. In the most recent clash on March 14, 2026, Extremadura UD won 1-0 at home. Earlier, on September 28, 2025, they secured a 2-1 away victory at Aguilas FC. The head-to-head record reads: Extremadura UD wins: 2, draws: 0, Aguilas FC wins: 0.

Win Probability: Extremadura UD or Aguilas FC?

After analyzing the available data, we assign the following win probabilities: Extremadura UD has a 60% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Aguilas FC has a 15% chance. These estimates are based on home advantage, the team's flawless head-to-head record, and a significantly stronger recent form (4 wins in 5 vs. 2 wins in 5). Extremadura's attacking form and home crowd give them a clear edge, while Aguilas's recent draws suggest they can be hard to beat but lack the cutting edge to win away.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds for this match are not currently available, but the statistical picture points strongly to an Extremadura UD win. Given the home team's perfect record against Aguilas FC and their current momentum, a home victory is the most likely outcome. Our prediction: Extremadura UD to win. The under/over market could be interesting, as Extremadura's recent matches have often seen over 2.5 goals, while Aguilas's recent games have been low-scoring. A 2-0 or 2-1 correct scoreline in favor of Extremadura looks plausible.