Ethiopia - Malawi prediction 9 June 2026

On June 9, 2026, Ethiopia faces Malawi in a Friendly International match. Our Ethiopia vs Malawi prediction gives Ethiopia a 45% chance to win, with the draw at 35% and Malawi at 20%. Read on for team form, head-to-head record, and betting tips.

Team Form

Ethiopia's last five results: D, W, W, W, L. They drew 1-1 with Malawi on June 9, beat Malawi 1-0 on June 6, defeated Sao Tome and Principe 1-0 on March 31, won 3-0 away at Sao Tome and Principe on March 27, and lost 3-1 to Burkina Faso on October 12, 2025. Ethiopia has won three of their last five matches.

Malawi's last five results: D, L, L, W, D. They drew 1-1 with Ethiopia on June 9, lost 1-0 to Ethiopia on June 6, lost 1-0 to Botswana on March 31, beat Lesotho 1-0 on November 18, 2025, and drew 0-0 with Lesotho on November 15, 2025. Malawi has only one win in their last five outings.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met three times. Ethiopia has 1 win, there have been 2 draws, and Malawi has 0 wins. The most recent match ended in a 1-1 draw on June 9, 2026. Ethiopia won the previous encounter 1-0 on June 6, 2026. Their first meeting, in the African Cup of Nations on June 20, 2023, ended 0-0.

League Table Positions

This is a Friendly International match, so no league table data is available. Both teams are using these games to prepare for upcoming competitive fixtures.

Win Probability: Ethiopia or Malawi?

Based on the available data, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Ethiopia has a 45% chance of winning, the draw is at 35%, and Malawi has a 20% chance. This assessment considers Ethiopia's stronger recent form (three wins in five), their unbeaten head-to-head record (1 win, 2 draws), and the fact that they are the home team. Malawi's poor form—one win in five—and their failure to beat Ethiopia in three attempts reduce their chances significantly.

Odds & Match Prediction

Odds for this match are not available in the provided data. However, based on the stats, Ethiopia enters the match as the favorite. Their recent 1-0 win over Malawi just days ago and overall superior form give them the edge. The most likely outcome is a low-scoring affair, given that two of the three head-to-head meetings have produced under 1.5 total goals. Our Ethiopia vs Malawi prediction: Ethiopia to win, but a draw is a real possibility.