Mineros de Fresnillo - Estudiantes Tecos prediction 14 February 2026

The Liga Premier Serie A match between Estudiantes Tecos and Mineros de Fresnillo on February 14, 2026, sees the home side as the clear favorite. Based on our analysis, Estudiantes Tecos has a 50% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 30% and an away win for Mineros de Fresnillo at 20%.

Team Form

Estudiantes Tecos come into this match with mixed results: D, L, W, L, D in their last five outings. They recently drew 0-0 at home against Inter Playa del Carmen and lost 2-0 away to the same opponent. A 4-1 win at Colima showed their potential, but defeats to Leones Negros UDG II (0-2) and a 1-1 draw with Tigres de Alica highlight inconsistency.

Mineros de Fresnillo have been draw specialists lately: D, D, L, W, D. They drew 1-1 twice against Cimarrones de Sonora, lost 2-1 at Alacranes de Durango, thrashed Reboceros de La Piedad 6-2 at home, and drew 0-0 at Colima. Their form is slightly more stable with only one loss in five, but they struggle to turn draws into wins.

Head-to-Head Record

Estudiantes Tecos have dominated this fixture historically, winning 8 of the 15 meetings, with 4 draws and just 3 wins for Mineros de Fresnillo. The last two encounters both went to Estudiantes Tecos: a 3-0 home win in September 2025 and a 2-0 away victory in March 2025. The most recent match at this venue ended 2-1 to Estudiantes Tecos in November 2024.

League Table Positions

Estudiantes Tecos sit 9th in the Liga Premier Serie A with 46 points from 26 matches (14 wins, 4 draws, 8 losses). They have scored 49 goals and conceded 34. Mineros de Fresnillo are outside the top 12, indicating a lower position and fewer points. The home side's superior ranking and home advantage give them a significant edge.

Win Probability: Estudiantes Tecos or Mineros de Fresnillo?

We calculate the win probabilities as follows: Estudiantes Tecos 50%, Draw 30%, Mineros de Fresnillo 20%. This assessment is based on the home team's higher league standing, dominant head-to-head record (8 wins in 15 games), and the advantage of playing at home. Although recent form is similar, Estudiantes Tecos have shown they can beat this opponent convincingly. The draw probability is elevated due to Mineros de Fresnillo's tendency to share points in recent matches.

Odds & Match Prediction

No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture at the time of writing. However, based on the statistics, Estudiantes Tecos would be expected to be priced as favorites. Our prediction: Estudiantes Tecos to win, but a draw is a plausible outcome given the visitors' recent run of stalemates. A 2-1 home victory is a likely scoreline.