Baku Sporting - Energetik Mingechevir prediction 18 March 2026

The Energetik Mingechevir vs Baku Sporting prediction for the 1 Division match on Mar 18, 2026, at 11:00 UTC. Based on the stats, Energetik Mingechevir is the favorite with a 45% win probability.

Team Form

Energetik Mingechevir's last five matches: L, W, W, L, W. They lost 0-2 to Qabala, beat Sabail FC 4-1, beat MOIK Baku 3-1, lost 0-2 to Sahdag, and crushed PFK Simurq Zaqatala 7-1. At home, they have scored 34 goals in 14 league games this season.

Baku Sporting's recent form: D, W, W, D, L. They drew 1-1 with Sahdag, beat PFK Simurq Zaqatala 3-0, won 3-2 at Cabrayil FC, drew 1-1 with Difai Agsu, and lost 0-1 to Simal. Their away record stands at 6 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses.

Head-to-Head Record

The last six meetings: Energetik Mingechevir won 3, Baku Sporting won 2, and 1 draw. The most recent clash on Mar 18, 2026, ended 1-1. Before that, Energetik won 1-0 away on Mar 5, 2026, Baku Sporting won 2-1 away on Nov 26, 2025, Energetik won 4-0 at home on Apr 24, 2025, and Energetik won 1-0 away on Feb 20, 2025. Goals have been relatively low in this fixture, with three of the last five producing under 2.5 total goals.

League Table Positions

Energetik Mingechevir sits 2nd in the 1 Division with 51 points from 27 games (15 wins, 6 draws, 6 losses). Baku Sporting is 4th with 49 points (13 wins, 10 draws, 4 losses). At home, Energetik has the 2nd-best record (9W, 2D, 3L), while Baku Sporting's away form ranks 2nd (6W, 5D, 2L). The gap is just 2 points, highlighting how close these teams are.

Win Probability: Energetik Mingechevir or Baku Sporting?

Energetik Mingechevir has a 45% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and Baku Sporting has a 25% chance. This calculation is based on league positions, home advantage, recent form, and head-to-head history. Energetik's stronger home scoring (34 goals) and higher table rank give them the edge, but Baku Sporting's solid away defense (only 12 conceded in 13 away games) and the balanced H2H record keep the contest open. A draw is a realistic outcome given both teams' recent stalemates.

Odds & Match Prediction

No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture at the time of writing. Our prediction, based on the stats, is a home win for Energetik Mingechevir. The most likely correct score is 1-0 or 2-1, reflecting Energetik's attacking strength at home and Baku Sporting's resilience on the road. A draw is the second most probable result.