Deportivo Maipu - San Martin Tucuman prediction 17 July 2026

The Deportivo Maipu vs San Martin Tucuman prediction for the Primera Nacional match on July 17, 2026, at 18:00 UTC points to a tight contest. Based on odds and recent form, San Martin Tucuman enters as the slight favorite with a 35% win probability, while a draw is the most likely result at 44%.

Team Form

Deportivo Maipu recent form (last 5): W, W, D, L, L. They beat Atletico Rafaela 3-1 away and Agropecuario 2-0 at home, drew 0-0 with Gimnasia y Tiro de Salta, then lost to Tristan Suarez 0-1 at home and 0-1 away at Club Atletico Guemes. At home, their last three matches produced one win, one draw, and one loss, showing inconsistency.

San Martin Tucuman form: W, W, D, L, D. They won 3-0 at home against Club Almagro and 1-0 away at Patronato Parana, drew 1-1 away at Temperley, lost 0-2 away at CA Colegiales, and drew 0-0 at home with Quilmes. Their away results are mixed, with a win, a draw, and a loss in their last three road trips.

Head-to-Head Record

San Martin Tucuman dominates this fixture. In 7 meetings, San Martin has 6 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses. Deportivo Maipu has never won. The only draw came in the most recent clash on March 1, 2026, a 2-2 result at San Martin's stadium. Prior to that, San Martin won four straight, including a 2-0 win at Deportivo Maipu in February 2024.

League Table Positions

Neither Deportivo Maipu nor San Martin Tucuman appears in the top 12 of the overall league standings, nor in the home or away table segments. This suggests both sides are positioned in the middle or lower part of the table. Exact rank, points, and gap data are unavailable, but their absence from the leading group indicates a mid-table contest.

Win Probability: Deportivo Maipu or San Martin Tucuman?

Our probability calculation uses the average bookmaker odds (home 3.39, draw 1.82, away 3.46) as a base. The inverse normalized percentages are 26% home win, 49% draw, and 25% away win. Adjusting for the lopsided head-to-head record (San Martin 6 wins, 1 draw) and Deportivo Maipu's shaky home form, we shift probabilities. Final estimates:

• Deportivo Maipu win – 21%
• Draw – 44%
• San Martin Tucuman win – 35%

Conclusion: a draw is the single most probable outcome. However, San Martin Tucuman is the more likely winner if the match produces a result.

Odds & Match Prediction

Average bookmaker odds for the 1X2 market: Deportivo Maipu win 3.39, Draw 1.82, San Martin Tucuman win 3.46. Bookmakers see the draw as the favourite event.

Our match prediction based on all available stats: a draw is the most probable outcome, but San Martin Tucuman’s historical edge makes them the value pick for a win. A betting tip worth considering is a double chance X2 (draw or away win) or under 2.5 goals given the low-scoring trend in recent meetings.