Gremio Novorizontino SP - Criciuma SC prediction 21 July 2026

The Gremio Novorizontino SP vs Criciuma SC prediction for this Serie B clash on Jul 21, 2026, at 22:30 points to a tight contest where a draw is the most probable result. Our analysis gives Gremio Novorizontino SP a 34% win probability, Criciuma SC a 28% chance, and the draw a 38% likelihood. Both teams are in the promotion hunt, making this a crucial battle.

Team Form

Gremio Novorizontino SP come into this match with inconsistent recent results. Their last five outings show two defeats followed by three wins: L, L, W, W, W. The losses came away at Fortaleza CE (0-1) and Operario PR (1-2), but they previously beat Atletico Goianiense GO (3-0), Vila Nova GO (2-1), and Ponte Preta SP (0-2). The attack has been productive at home, but defensive lapses on the road have crept in.

Criciuma SC, in contrast, are in sensational form. They have won their last five matches: W, W, W, W, W. This perfect run includes a 2-0 home victory over Vila Nova GO, a 2-1 away win at Ponte Preta SP, and three 1-0 clean sheets against Sport Recife PE, Sao Bernardo SP, and America Mineiro MG. The visitors arrive full of confidence, especially defensively, having conceded just one goal in those five games.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record across nine meetings shows Gremio Novorizontino SP with 4 wins, Criciuma SC with 2 wins, and 3 draws. Looking at the most recent five encounters, Gremio hold a 3-1-1 advantage, including two home victories (2-0 and 3-1) and a 1-1 draw at home in 2025. Criciuma’s only win in that period came at their own ground in August 2025. The history suggests Gremio Novorizontino SP are tough to beat on home soil in this fixture.

League Table Positions

Criciuma SC currently lead the Serie B table with 33 points from 17 matches (9 wins, 6 draws, 2 losses). Gremio Novorizontino SP sit 4th with 30 points (8 wins, 6 draws, 3 losses). The three-point gap underlines the importance of this match. Gremio’s home form is solid: 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss from 8 home games, scoring 14 and conceding 9. Criciuma boast the second-best away record in the league, with 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses on their travels, netting 10 times and conceding just 8. Both sides have shown resilience in these situations.

Win Probability: Gremio Novorizontino SP or Criciuma SC?

Based on the available data, we calculate the outcome probabilities as follows: Gremio Novorizontino SP win – 34%, draw – 38%, Criciuma SC win – 28%. The starting point was the inverse of the best available odds (home 2.25, draw 2.00, away 4.00), which after removing the bookmaker margin gave base chances of 37.2%, 41.9%, and 20.9% respectively. We then adjusted for team form: Criciuma’s five-match winning streak and top position in the league increased their probability, while Gremio’s recent two defeats tempered their home advantage. The head-to-head record and home stadium factor kept Gremio as marginal favorites for the win, but the draw still emerges as the most likely single outcome. The final percentages reflect a balanced contest with little to separate the sides.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer odds in the following ranges for the full-time result: Gremio Novorizontino SP win 2.15–2.25, draw 1.98–2.00, Criciuma SC win 3.60–4.00. The low draw price confirms the market expects a close game. Based on the stats, our match prediction is a draw. If you are looking for a winner pick, Gremio Novorizontino SP have a slight edge thanks to home soil, but Criciuma’s form cannot be ignored. A 1-1 scoreline looks a realistic outcome given both teams’ defensive and attacking numbers.