Cesar Vallejo Moquegua - Comerciantes Unidos prediction 18 July 2026

The Cesar Vallejo Moquegua vs Comerciantes Unidos prediction for July 18, 2026, points towards a tight Primera Division contest at the Estadio 25 de Noviembre. Based on our win probability analysis, Cesar Vallejo Moquegua enters as the slight favorite with a 40% chance of winning, while Comerciantes Unidos holds a 33% probability, leaving a 27% chance for the draw.

Team Form

Cesar Vallejo Moquegua's recent form is poor, with results of L, D, L, D, L in their last five matches. They have failed to win any of these games, scoring just 3 goals while conceding 6. At home, they managed a 0-0 draw against Universitario De Deportes and a 2-2 draw with AD Tarma, but lost 0-1 to Atletico Grau and 1-2 to Alianza Lima.

Comerciantes Unidos mirrors this form exactly, also posting L, D, L, D, L in their last five outings. They have scored only 1 goal in this period and conceded 5. Their away performances include a 0-1 loss at Sport Boys, a 0-2 defeat at AD Tarma, and a 0-1 loss at Cienciano, highlighting a serious goal-scoring problem on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met only once before in the Primera Division. On February 2, 2026, Comerciantes Unidos secured a 1-0 home victory over Cesar Vallejo Moquegua. The head-to-head record stands at 0 wins for Cesar Vallejo Moquegua, 0 draws, and 1 win for Comerciantes Unidos.

League Table Positions

In the overall Primera Division standings, Comerciantes Unidos sits 9th with 21 points from 17 matches (5 wins, 6 draws, 6 losses), while Cesar Vallejo Moquegua is not listed in the top 12, indicating a lower position. Comerciantes Unidos has a solid home record, ranked 8th with 16 points from 9 home games. Cesar Vallejo Moquegua's away form is not detailed in the provided standings, but their overall absence from the table suggests a struggle this season.

Win Probability: Cesar Vallejo Moquegua or Comerciantes Unidos?

After calculating the implied probabilities from the available odds and adjusting for recent form and head-to-head results, the win probabilities are: Cesar Vallejo Moquegua has a 40% chance of winning, the draw is at 27%, and Comerciantes Unidos has a 33% chance. The odds suggest a very close match, with the home side Cesar Vallejo Moquegua given a marginal edge. However, both teams are in identical poor form, and Comerciantes Unidos won the only previous meeting, which balances the probabilities. The home advantage at Estadio 25 de Noviembre slightly tilts the scale in favor of Cesar Vallejo Moquegua.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as an evenly matched contest. The 1X2 odds range from 1.91 to 2.00 for a Cesar Vallejo Moquegua win, 1.98 to 3.20 for the draw, and 3.75 to 4.00 for a Comerciantes Unidos victory. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is a narrow win for Cesar Vallejo Moquegua, but the high probability of a draw reflects both teams' struggles to secure victories. A low-scoring match is expected given the recent goal droughts for both sides.