Club Marina C.R. - Caudillos de Morelos prediction 12 September 2025

The Club Marina C.R. vs Caudillos de Morelos prediction for September 12, 2025, is here. In this Liga TDP clash, the visitors enter as narrow favorites based on recent form and the head-to-head record. Our win probability model gives Caudillos de Morelos a 40% chance to take all three points, while Club Marina C.R. sits at 30% and the draw at 30%.

Team Form

Club Marina C.R. come into this match with just one win in their last five (W1 D1 L3). Their most recent outing was a 4-0 home victory over Sporting Canamy II on Mar 27, but that ended a run of three defeats and a draw. The earlier matches saw a 3-1 loss to Iguala, a 4-4 draw with Atletico Real Morelos, and heavy defeats to Jaguares de Chiapas FC II (0-2) and Deportivo Yautepec (0-7). Defensive fragility is a clear concern.

Caudillos de Morelos have an almost identical short-term record of one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five. They lost 4-1 to Jaguares de Chiapas FC II on Apr 12, but previously beat Alebrijes CDMX 3-2. A 3-0 defeat to Aguilas UAGro and a 1-3 home loss to Selva Canera underline their inconsistency, while the draw at Alebrijes CDMX (0-0) shows they can keep things tight.

Head-to-Head Record

These sides have met only once before – on exactly this fixture date, September 12, 2025. Caudillos de Morelos edged a five-goal thriller, winning 3-2 away at Club Marina C.R. That result gives them a psychological edge and demonstrates they can score on the road against this opponent.

Win Probability: Club Marina C.R. or Caudillos de Morelos?

We calculate the win probability based on form, head-to-head data, and the home/away factor. Because neither team shows strong recent results, we assign a higher draw probability than usual. Caudillos de Morelos’s direct victory in the only H2H meeting, combined with Club Marina C.R.’s leaky defence (13 goals conceded in the last five), gives the visitors a slight advantage. The final numbers are:
- Club Marina C.R. win: 30%
- Draw: 30%
- Caudillos de Morelos win: 40%
Thus, while the match is finely balanced, Caudillos de Morelos has a marginally higher chance to come out on top.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ odds are not available for this fixture, so no market comparison can be made. Based on the statistics alone, Caudillos de Morelos appears the most likely winner. The head-to-head result and the defensive weaknesses of Club Marina C.R. point toward an away victory. Our match prediction therefore leans towards a Caudillos de Morelos win, perhaps with both teams scoring given the previous 3-2 encounter. A 1-2 or 2-3 scoreline cannot be ruled out, but the safest call is simply an away result.