Crown - Chicago Fire II prediction 18 July 2026

The Chicago Fire II vs Crown prediction for July 18, 2026, points to a tight MLS Next Pro contest at 21:30 UTC. Based on recent form and home advantage, Chicago Fire II enters as the slight favorite with a 40% win probability, while Crown holds a 30% chance and the draw sits at 30%.

Team Form

Chicago Fire II are unbeaten in their last five matches, recording three wins and two draws. They beat New York Red Bulls II 3-0 at home, drew 2-2 away at both Huntsville City and Chattanooga FC, won 2-1 at New England Revolution II, and defeated Inter Miami II 3-1 at home. That run shows solid attacking output and defensive resilience.

Crown, on the other hand, are winless in five outings. They lost 0-3 at home to NYC New York City II, drew 1-1 with Orlando City II, played a 3-3 thriller at Atlanta United II, drew 0-0 at Huntsville City, and fell 0-2 at Carolina Core FC. With only three draws and two defeats, their form is a concern ahead of this trip.

Head-to-Head Record

The all-time head-to-head record between these sides shows 1 Chicago Fire II win, 1 draw, and 2 Crown victories. In their most recent meeting on May 9, 2026, Chicago Fire II won 3-2 at home. Earlier, they drew 1-1 at home in July 2025. Crown won the two previous encounters in 2023 – 4-2 at home and 1-0 away. The H2H suggests a closely matched rivalry with a slight edge to Crown historically.

League Table Positions

Crown sit 3rd in the overall MLS Next Pro standings with 36 points from 17 games (12 wins, 0 draws, 5 losses). Their away record is strong: 4th in the league with 5 wins and 3 losses from 8 road trips, scoring 21 goals and conceding 17. Chicago Fire II are outside the top 12 in the overall table, indicating a lower position, though their recent surge has not yet lifted them into the playoff spots. The gap in league standing favors Crown, but current momentum belongs to the home side.

Win Probability: Chicago Fire II or Crown?

After evaluating all available data – team form, head-to-head record, league positions, and home/away factor – we calculate the following outcome probabilities:

• Chicago Fire II win: 40%
• Draw: 30%
• Crown win: 30%

Chicago Fire II’s five-match unbeaten streak and home advantage give them the edge, but Crown’s superior league standing and solid away form keep them dangerous. The draw is a realistic result given both teams’ recent tendency to share points (Chicago Fire II drew two of their last five, Crown drew three). Overall, Chicago Fire II has a 40% chance of winning, making them the most likely single outcome, though the match is far from one-sided.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ odds for this fixture are not currently available. Without market prices, our prediction relies purely on statistical analysis. Chicago Fire II’s strong form and home soil point to a home win or draw scenario. Crown’s quality on the road means they cannot be dismissed. Based on the stats, the safest betting tip is to back Chicago Fire II double chance, but the value could lie in the draw given both teams’ recent stalemates. We will update this section once odds are released.