Chelsea Women - Manchester United Women prediction 16 May 2026

The Chelsea Women vs Manchester United Women prediction points to a home victory in the Super League Women on May 16, 2026. Chelsea Women enter the match as the clear favorite with a 60% win probability, based on their dominant form, head-to-head record, and higher league position.

Team Form

Chelsea Women are in excellent shape with four wins and one draw in their last five matches (W-D-W-W-W). They beat Manchester United Women 1-0 in their most recent outing, drew 2-2 with Manchester City Women in the FA Cup, and recorded convincing away wins at Leicester City Women (3-1) and Everton Women (4-1). A 2-1 home win over Tottenham Hotspur Women completes a very strong run.

Manchester United Women, in contrast, are struggling badly. Their last five results read L-D-D-L-L. After the 0-1 loss to Chelsea Women, they drew 1-1 with Brighton & Hove Albion Women and 0-0 with Tottenham Hotspur Women, lost 1-2 at Bayern Munich Women in the Champions League, and were beaten 0-3 at home by Manchester City Women. The visitors have not won any of their last five matches.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Chelsea Women. In 17 meetings, Chelsea have won 13, drawn 3, and lost just once to Manchester United Women. The last five encounters show Chelsea's control: a 1-0 win on May 16, 2026, a 1-1 draw in the FA Cup in February 2026, a 1-1 draw in October 2025, a 3-0 FA Cup win in May 2025, and a 1-0 away win in April 2025. Manchester United Women have not beaten Chelsea in any of those recent clashes.

League Table Positions

Chelsea Women sit 3rd in the Super League Women with 49 points from 22 matches (15 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses). They have scored 44 goals and conceded 20. Manchester United Women are 4th with 40 points (11 wins, 7 draws, 4 losses), scoring 38 and conceding 22. At home, Chelsea are even stronger: 9 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, with 20 goals scored and only 8 conceded. Manchester United's away record is solid (6 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses) but not enough to bridge the gap.

Win Probability: Chelsea Women or Manchester United Women?

Based on all available data, the win probabilities are: Chelsea Women 60%, draw 25%, Manchester United Women 15%. Chelsea's dominant form (four wins in five), overwhelming head-to-head advantage (13 wins in 17 meetings), and higher league position give them a strong edge. Manchester United's poor recent run and lack of goals (only 2 scored in their last five) make an away win unlikely. The home factor further tilts the balance toward Chelsea.

Odds & Match Prediction

No specific odds are available in the data, but bookmakers would undoubtedly price Chelsea Women as heavy favorites. The prediction is a Chelsea Women win, with a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline the most likely outcome given the visitors' recent attacking struggles. A draw cannot be ruled out, but the stats strongly support a home victory.