Chacarita Juniors - Club Atletico Guemes prediction 20 July 2026

Looking for a Chacarita Juniors vs Club Atletico Guemes prediction? This Primera Nacional match kicks off on July 20, 2026, at 18:00. Based on our analysis, Chacarita Juniors enters as the favorite with a 45% win probability, while the draw stands at 38% and Club Atletico Guemes has a 17% chance.

Team Form

Chacarita Juniors' last five matches show a mixed record: D, W, D, L, L. They managed one win, two draws, and two defeats. Their most recent outing was a 1-1 draw away at Gimnasia Jujuy on July 12. Prior to that, they secured a 1-0 away win against San Martin De San Juan. The two losses came against Nueva Chicago (0-2) and Temperley (0-1), both exposing defensive vulnerabilities.

Club Atletico Guemes comes into this game in poor form, with four losses and just one win in their last five (L, L, L, L, W). That lone victory was a 1-0 home win over Deportivo Maipu on June 7. Since then, they have suffered heavy defeats: 4-1 at Temperley, 3-1 at home to Gimnasia Jujuy, 2-0 at Nueva Chicago, and 2-0 at home to San Martin De San Juan. Guemes has conceded 11 goals in those four losses, signaling serious defensive issues.

Head-to-Head Record

These sides have met three times in recent Primera Nacional history, with Club Atletico Guemes holding a 2-1 edge. All three encounters were played at Guemes' home ground. The most recent clash on March 1, 2026, ended 2-1 to Guemes. Chacarita's only win came back in September 2022, a 1-0 away victory. The other meeting, in October 2024, also finished 2-1 in favor of Guemes. This head-to-head trend suggests Guemes knows how to get results against Chacarita, though the venue now shifts to Chacarita's home.

League Table Positions

Neither team appears in the top 12 of the current Primera Nacional standings, indicating both are positioned in the lower half of the table. The available data shows Ferro Carril Oeste leading with 43 points, while Chacarita Juniors and Club Atletico Guemes are outside the top 12. This suggests a mid-to-lower table battle where every point matters, and neither side can afford to drop points.

Win Probability: Chacarita Juniors or Club Atletico Guemes?

After evaluating all available data, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Chacarita Juniors 45%, draw 38%, Club Atletico Guemes 17%. These percentages are derived from the average bookmaker odds (home win ~1.97, draw ~2.11, away win ~4.58), adjusted for recent form and head-to-head trends. Chacarita's home advantage and slightly better recent results give them the edge, but Guemes' historical success in this fixture (2 wins in 3 meetings) and the high draw probability reflected in the odds keep the outcome uncertain. The draw is a significant possibility, and bettors should consider that a stalemate is almost as likely as a home win.

Chacarita Juniors vs Club Atletico Guemes Prediction & Odds

Bookmakers see Chacarita Juniors as the clear favorite. The best available odds are as high as 2.00 for a home win, 2.89 for the draw, and 4.60 for an away win. These odds imply a tight contest with a strong chance of a stalemate. Based on the stats, our prediction leans towards a Chacarita Juniors win, but the draw is a very realistic outcome. A 1-0 or 2-1 home victory appears the most likely scoreline. Given Guemes' defensive struggles on the road, Chacarita should create enough chances to edge this match, but the value may lie in the draw market given the odds.