Our Celaya CF vs Cajeteros Celaya prediction for the November 1st, 2025 Liga TDP match points to a home victory. Celaya CF enters as the favorite with a 60% win probability, while Cajeteros Celaya has just a 15% chance of an upset.
Celaya CFโs recent form line reads L, L, W, W, W, showing three wins in their last five outings. Their most recent matches were all in the higher-tier Liga Premier Serie A, where they beat Cimarrones de Sonora, Leones Negros UDG II, and Cimarrones de Sonora again, scoring 10 goals across those fixtures. This level of competition is a step above the Liga TDP, giving them a clear edge in quality.
Cajeteros Celaya have posted L, W, D, L, L over their last five. Their only win in that span came away at IFAC (4-0) in late November, but they suffered heavy defeats to Lobos Puebla and Lobos ULMX II, both by 3-0 scorelines. The side has struggled to find consistency and conceded 10 goals in those five games.
There is no head-to-head record between Celaya CF and Cajeteros Celaya. This will be the first meeting between the two clubs, so no historical data can be used to gauge the outcome.
Based on the available data, we have calculated the following probabilities:
Celaya CFโs superior form, experience in a higher division, and home advantage are the main drivers of their high win probability. Cajeteros Celaya have shown they can be competitive on their day, but the step up in class looks too great. The draw chance is elevated because Liga TDP matches often produce tight affairs, and Cajeteros Celaya have shown they can grind out a result, as seen in their 0-0 draw with Estudiantes de Queretaro.
Odds are not available for this fixture, but our analysis strongly favors a Celaya CF victory. The likely outcome is a home win, with a predicted scoreline of 2-0 or 3-1. Cajeteros Celayaโs defence has been leaky, and against a Celaya CF side that has scored freely, they will struggle to keep a clean sheet.