CD Marathon - Olancho prediction 12 April 2026

The Liga Nacional match between CD Marathon and Olancho on Apr 12, 2026 at 21:00 is a crucial fixture for both sides. CD Marathon enter as the clear favorite with our model giving them a 55% win probability, based on their dominant home record and strong head-to-head history.

Team Form

CD Marathon's recent form has been inconsistent, recording three consecutive draws before a 1-0 win over Olimpia Tegucigalpa and a 2-0 loss to the same opponent. Their last five matches: D, D, D, W, L. At home, however, they remain formidable, with no defeats in the league this season.

Olancho's last five results: D, L, W, L, D. They managed a 2-1 away win against Motagua but also suffered a 2-0 home loss to Motagua and a 3-1 home defeat to Genesis PN. Their away form is a concern, with only two wins on the road all season.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last four H2H meetings (excluding the current fixture), CD Marathon have won three and drawn one. They beat Olancho 2-1 at home in December 2025 and thrashed them 3-0 away in the same month. Olancho did manage a 1-1 draw at home in February 2026. Overall, CD Marathon hold a 9-4 advantage in wins from 20 previous encounters.

League Table Positions

CD Marathon sit 2nd in the Liga Nacional overall standings with 42 points from 20 games (12 wins, 6 draws, 2 losses). Their home form is the best in the league: 8 wins and 2 draws in 10 matches, with 19 goals scored and only 3 conceded.

Olancho are 6th with 27 points (6 wins, 9 draws, 5 losses). Their away record is one of the weakest in the division, ranking 8th with just 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats, and a goal difference of -1.

Win Probability: CD Marathon or Olancho?

Based on the available statistics, CD Marathon have a 55% chance of winning, the draw stands at 25%, and an Olancho victory has a 20% probability. This assessment combines the home team’s unbeaten run at home, their far superior league position and H2H dominance. The probability is adjusted for CD Marathon’s slightly patchy recent form, which gives Olancho a moderate chance of securing a point.

Odds & Match Prediction

No bookmaker odds are currently available for this fixture. Once markets open, CD Marathon are expected to be strong favorites. Our prediction is a CD Marathon win, though a low-scoring game is likely given the hosts’ defensive solidity at home and Olancho’s struggles on the road. A 1-0 or 2-0 correct score bet carries value if the odds permit.