Carlisle United - Worthing prediction 8 August 2026

Carlisle United vs Worthing prediction: this National League match kicks off on August 8, 2026, at 14:00. Based on our analysis, Carlisle United enters as the clear favorite with a 55% probability of victory, while Worthing has a 20% chance and the draw stands at 25%.

Team Form

Both sides come into the fixture in strong shape, but the quality of opposition and league levels differ significantly.

Carlisle United's Recent Form

Carlisle United are unbeaten in their last five outings (D, W, W, W, D). In that run they recorded a dominant 3–0 home win against Brackley Town, a 3–0 victory over Sutton United, and a 1–0 away win at Truro City. Two draws — 1–1 at home to Boreham Wood and 2–2 away to Morecambe — complete the sequence. Over the full season Carlisle finished third in the National League with 95 points, scoring 87 goals and conceding only 51.

Worthing's Recent Form

Worthing have won four of their last five matches (W, L, W, W, W). Highlights include a 7–2 thrashing of Dagenham & Redbridge, a 2–0 home win over Ebbsfleet United, a 2–1 away success at Dorking Wanderers, and a 2–1 home defeat of Eastbourne Borough. The only blemish was a 2–1 loss at Maidstone United. Worthing competed in National League South last term, one level below Carlisle.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no previous head-to-head history between Carlisle United and Worthing. The data shows 0 home wins, 0 draws, and 0 away wins. This will be their first-ever meeting.

League Table Positions

Carlisle United ended the last National League season in 3rd place, amassing 95 points from 46 games (29 wins, 8 draws, 9 losses). At home they were the 4th best side: 15 wins, 5 draws, and only 3 defeats from 23 matches, with a goals scored tally of 53 against just 24 conceded. Worthing are not present in the supplied National League standings, confirming they played in National League South. This divisional gap strongly favours the home team.

Win Probability: Carlisle United or Worthing?

We estimate the probabilities as follows: Carlisle United win — 55%, draw — 25%, Worthing win — 20%. This calculation starts with the bookmaker odds (home 1.91, draw 2.60, away 5.00), normalized to remove the margin, and then adjusts for Carlisle’s superior home form, their higher league tier, and the general dominance of home sides in such cross-division cup matches. Even though Worthing are in good form, the gulf in class and the home advantage make Carlisle the most likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

The available 1X2 odds are: Carlisle United to win at 1.91, the draw at 2.60, and a Worthing away win at 5.00. Bookmakers see the home side as the strong favourite. After weighing the stats — Carlisle’s unbeaten streak, a rock-solid home record of 15 wins in 23, and the division gap — our prediction sides with the market: Carlisle United to win. The 55% win probability translates to fair value around 1.82, so the 1.91 odds offer a slight edge. A cautious bet on the home win is the recommended play.