Burnley - Mansfield Town prediction 14 February 2026

The FA Cup match between Burnley and Mansfield Town takes place on February 14, 2026, at 15:00. Our Burnley vs Mansfield Town prediction is based on recent form and the only available data. Burnley, despite being a Premier League side, enters in poor shape, giving Mansfield Town from League 1 a strong chance of an upset. The win probability gives Burnley a 40% chance, the draw 30%, and Mansfield Town a 30% chance.

Team Form

Burnley’s last five matches have returned zero wins: a 1-1 home draw with Wolverhampton (May 24), a 1-0 loss at Arsenal (May 18), a 2-2 home draw with Aston Villa (May 10), a 3-1 defeat at Leeds (May 1), and a 1-0 home loss to Manchester City (Apr 22). That’s two draws and three losses, with only three goals scored in those five games.

Mansfield Town, in contrast, are unbeaten in their last five across all competitions: a 5-4 home win against Cardiff (May 2), a 0-0 draw at Peterborough (Apr 28), a 4-1 away win at Huddersfield (Apr 25), a 1-0 victory at Stockport (Apr 21), and a 2-2 home draw with Luton (Apr 18). With three wins and two draws, Mansfield Town head into this tie full of confidence.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no prior head-to-head record between Burnley and Mansfield Town. This FA Cup fixture marks their first ever competitive meeting, so historical meetings provide no guidance for this Burnley vs Mansfield Town prediction.

Win Probability: Burnley or Mansfield Town?

Based on the data, we calculate the outcome probabilities as: Burnley win – 40%, draw – 30%, Mansfield Town win – 30%. Burnley’s Premier League status gives them a nominal edge, but their dreadful recent form (no win in five) significantly reduces their chances. Mansfield Town’s strong away performances and three wins in five matches make them a real threat, especially in a cup competition. The draw is also a likely outcome given both sides’ tendency to share points. Overall, Burnley are slight favourites, but the tie is far from one-sided.

Odds & Match Prediction

No odds data is available for this match in our source. Bookmakers would typically price Burnley as favourites owing to their top-flight status, but the form gap suggests the odds would be tighter than expected. Our prediction: a close contest with Mansfield Town capable of an upset. We lean towards a draw or an away win, reflecting the 60% combined probability for anything other than a Burnley victory. For betting tips, consider the double chance on Mansfield Town or the draw, and expect under 2.5 goals given Burnley’s recent scoring struggles.