Bunyodkor - Nasaf Qarshi prediction 16 July 2026

The Bunyodkor vs Nasaf Qarshi prediction for this Super League match on July 16, 2026, at 15:00 points to a tight contest. Based on odds, team form, and head-to-head record, Nasaf Qarshi enters as a slight favorite with a 35% win probability, while Bunyodkor has a 32% chance and the draw stands at 33%.

Team Form

Bunyodkor's recent form has been inconsistent. In their last five matches across all competitions, they recorded two wins, two losses, and one win: a 4-0 cup victory over Jayhun Nukus, a 2-1 cup win against PFC Terdu, a 1-0 league defeat at FK Kokand 1912, a 2-1 league home win over Navbahor Namangan, and a 3-1 home loss to Andijan. The home side has struggled for consistency, especially in the Super League.

Nasaf Qarshi, on the other hand, are unbeaten in their last five outings, though draws have been frequent. They beat Shurtan Guzar 4-0 in the cup, drew 1-1 at Andijan in the cup, thrashed Havokand 6-1 at home in the cup, played a goalless draw at home against Navbahor Namangan in the league, and drew 2-2 away at Pakhtakor. Nasaf's ability to avoid defeat makes them a tough opponent.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record between these two sides shows Bunyodkor with 9 wins, Nasaf Qarshi with 6 wins, and 8 draws. Recent meetings have been dominated by stalemates: four of the last five encounters ended in draws, including a 2-2 draw in October 2025 and a 2-2 draw in May 2025. The only exception was a 1-0 away win for Bunyodkor in September 2023. This history suggests another close match is likely.

League Table Positions

In the Super League standings, Bunyodkor sit 5th with 19 points from 11 matches (6 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses). Nasaf Qarshi are 9th with 14 points (3 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses). Despite the gap in points, Nasaf have lost just three times all season, highlighting their resilience. Bunyodkor's away form is strong (4th in the away table), but they are at home where they have not consistently dominated.

Win Probability: Bunyodkor or Nasaf Qarshi?

After analyzing all available data, the win probabilities for this match are: Bunyodkor 32%, draw 33%, and Nasaf Qarshi 35%. The bookmakers' opening odds (home 3.04, draw 3.00, away 2.37) imply Nasaf as the favorite, and that is adjusted slightly upward for Bunyodkor due to their home advantage and historical edge in head-to-head meetings. The high number of recent draws between the teams pushes the draw probability to nearly one-third. Overall, Nasaf Qarshi has a marginally better chance of winning, but the match is too close to call with any certainty.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for the 1X2 market show Bunyodkor at 3.04, the draw at 3.00, and Nasaf Qarshi at 2.37. Bookmakers see Nasaf Qarshi as the favorite, but the odds also reflect the likelihood of a drawn result. Based on the stats, a draw is a very realistic outcome, though Nasaf's unbeaten run gives them a slight edge. Our Bunyodkor vs Nasaf Qarshi prediction: a low-scoring draw or a narrow win for the away side.