Bentleigh Greens - Dandenong City prediction 17 July 2026

Bentleigh Greens vs Dandenong City prediction for the NPL Victoria match on Jul 17, 2026 at 09:30. Based on the latest odds, team form, and head-to-head record, Dandenong City has a 40% chance of winning, the draw is at 35%, and Bentleigh Greens has a 25% chance.

Team Form

Bentleigh Greens are in poor shape with five consecutive losses. Their last five results: a 1-2 defeat at Dandenong Thunder, a 0-3 loss at Green Gully Cavaliers, a 0-1 home loss to Altona Magic, a 1-5 home loss to South Melbourne, and a 1-5 home loss to Hume City. They have conceded 16 goals in these five matches.

Dandenong City's recent form is mixed: L, D, W, L, W. They lost 0-2 at home to South Melbourne, drew 0-0 away at Hume City, beat Avondale FC 3-1 at home, lost 2-3 away at Caroline Springs George Cross, and beat Heidelberg United 4-1 at home. Their away record this season stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last seven meetings, Bentleigh Greens have won 5, Dandenong City have won 2, and there have been no draws. The most recent encounter was on Apr 11, 2026, when Dandenong City won 3-0 at home. Before that, Bentleigh Greens won 5-0 away on Aug 21, 2022, and 2-1 at home on May 13, 2022.

League Table Positions

Bentleigh Greens sit 12th in the NPL Victoria with 16 points from 20 matches (4 wins, 4 draws, 12 losses). They have scored 18 goals and conceded 44. At home, they are 8th with 12 points from 11 games (3 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses). Dandenong City are 9th overall with 26 points (7 wins, 5 draws, 8 losses), scoring 26 and conceding 27. Their away form is weaker: 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses in 9 away matches.

Win Probability: Bentleigh Greens or Dandenong City?

After removing the bookmaker margin from the average odds (home 2.95, draw 2.24, away 2.38), the initial implied probabilities were: Bentleigh Greens 28.1%, draw 37.0%, Dandenong City 34.9%. Adjusting for Bentleigh Greens' five-match losing streak and their heavy defeats, their win probability drops to 25%. Dandenong City's away struggles are offset by a stronger overall record and a recent 3-0 H2H win, raising their chance to 40%. The draw remains a realistic outcome at 35% given both teams' inconsistencies.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer a range of odds: home win from 2.70 to 3.20, draw from 2.15 to 2.30, and away win from 2.25 to 2.48. The average odds make Dandenong City the slight favorite. Based on the stats, Dandenong City are more likely to win, but the high draw probability suggests a tight contest. Our prediction: Dandenong City to win or draw, with a 40% chance for an away victory.