Bahia de Feira BA - Jequie BA prediction 29 January 2026

Bahia de Feira BA vs Jequie BA prediction for the Campeonato Baiano match on January 29, 2026, at 22:15. Based on our comprehensive analysis, Bahia de Feira BA has a 40% win probability, the draw sits at 30%, and Jequie BA has a 30% chance. The match is a tight affair with the home side slight favourites.

Team Form

Bahia de Feira BA

Bahia de Feira BA's recent form across their last five matches reads: D, W, W, W, L. They picked up three wins and a draw in that spell, scoring heavily in away victories (7-0 and 6-0) but suffered a 2-1 home loss to Fluminense de Feira BA in their most recent outing. Defensively they have kept two clean sheets, showing moments of solidity at the back.

Jequie BA

Jequie BA's last four matches before this fixture produced a D, L, D, W pattern. They drew 1-1 with Barcelona Ilheus, lost 2-1 to Galicia BA, drew 2-2 with Vitoria BA, and won 2-0 away at Jacuipense BA. Their away form in the Campeonato Baiano stands at two wins and three losses from five trips, highlighting inconsistency on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The only previous head-to-head meeting between these two sides took place on February 4, 2024, ending in a 2-2 draw at Bahia de Feira. Thus, the H2H record is completely level with zero wins each and one draw. This lack of a clear historical edge adds to the unpredictability of the matchup.

League Table Positions

In the Campeonato Baiano overall standings, Jequie BA occupy 5th place with 12 points (3 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses), while Bahia de Feira BA sit 9th with 9 points (2 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses). Jequie BA have scored 15 goals and conceded 13, compared to Bahia de Feira’s 11 goals for and 12 against. Home advantage could narrow this gap – Bahia de Feira BA have taken 5 points from 5 away games in the campaign, but their home record is not listed among the top eight, suggesting some vulnerability at their own ground.

Win Probability: Bahia de Feira BA or Jequie BA?

The probability of each outcome, calculated from form, head-to-head, league standings, and home/away factors, is:

• Bahia de Feira BA win – 40%
• Draw – 30%
• Jequie BA win – 30%

No bookmaker odds were available for the 1X2 market at the time of analysis, so this assessment relies purely on statistical indicators. Bahia de Feira are given a marginal edge due to playing at home and their superior recent win rate (three wins in five), even though those victories came in the lower-tier Serie B. Jequie’s mixed away form and slightly higher league position balance the scales, resulting in a very even contest. The draw probability is elevated because of the single previous H2H stalemate and both teams’ tendency to share points in recent outings.

Odds & Match Prediction

Without concrete odds from bookmakers, we turn to probability-based reasoning. The data suggests Bahia de Feira BA are slight favourites, but the margin is thin. Our match prediction is a cautious home win or a draw – a 1-1 scoreline would reflect the H2H history, yet Bahia de Feira’s recent scoring form (7, 6, 1, 6 in their last five) could tilt the balance towards a 2-1 home victory. Jequie BA have the quality to take points on the road, so a draw remains a live possibility. For betting tips, the draw and under 2.5 goals look like value, given the tight nature of the contest.