Itabirito MG Women - Bahia BA Women prediction 21 July 2026
Itabirito MG Women
Bahia BA WomenItabirito MG Women
CA Piauiense PI WomenItabirito MG WomenSport Recife PE WomenAcao WomenItabirito MG WomenItabirito MG WomenUniao Desportiva AL WomenSport Recife PE WomenItabirito MG WomenItabirito MG WomenCeara WomenItabirito MG WomenDoce Mel EC BA WomenMinas Icesp DF WomenItabirito MG WomenRealidade Jovem SP WomenItabirito MG WomenItabirito MG Women3B Sport AM WomenVilla Nova WomenItabirito MG WomenItabirito MG WomenVasco da Gama RJ WomenPaysandu WomenItabirito MG WomenPerolas Negras WomenItabirito MG WomenItabirito MG WomenCeara WomenPlanalto EC GO WomenBahia BA WomenFluminense RJ WomenBahia BA WomenBahia BA WomenInternacional RS WomenMixto EC MT WomenBahia BA WomenBahia BA WomenPalmeiras SP WomenBahia BA WomenGremio RS WomenFlamengo RJ WomenBahia BA WomenBahia BA WomenAmerica MG WomenRed Bull Bragantino SP WomenBahia BA WomenBahia BA WomenSantos SP WomenBahia BA WomenVitoria BA WomenSao Paulo SP WomenBahia BA WomenBahia BA WomenCruzeiro MG WomenFerroviaria SP WomenBahia BA WomenRed Bull Bragantino SP WomenBahia BA Women| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.00 | 2.75 | 1.63 | |
| 8.00 | 2.75 | 1.62 | |
| 7.50 | 2.88 | 1.50 | |
| 8.50 | 5.35 | 1.24 |
Itabirito MG Women vs Bahia BA Women Prediction (Jul 21)
The Itabirito MG Women vs Bahia BA Women prediction for this Copa do Brasil Women clash on July 21, 2026, at 23:00 leans heavily towards the visitors. Based on the odds and recent form, Bahia BA Women enter the match as the clear favorite with a 55% win probability, while the home side holds just a 15% chance of causing an upset.
Team Form
Itabirito MG Women are in scintillating form, having won their last five matches across all competitions. They scored at least once in each of those games, including a 2-1 victory over Sport Recife PE Women in this very tournament. Their most recent outing was a 2-1 home win against CA Piauiense PI Women in the Campeonato Brasileiro A2 Women. The attack looks sharp, but all these wins came against lower-division or cup opponents, so the step up in class against a top-tier side is significant.
Bahia BA Women compete in the Campeonato Brasileiro A1 Women, the country's elite division. Their last five results show a mix of resilience and quality: two wins and three draws. They beat Planalto EC GO Women 1-0 away in the Copa do Brasil, drew 3-3 at Fluminense RJ Women, and thrashed Internacional RS Women 3-0 at home. The only slight concern is a tendency to draw matches, but they have not lost any of their last five, showing solid defensive organization and the ability to grind out results on the road.
Head-to-Head Record
There is no previous head-to-head record between Itabirito MG Women and Bahia BA Women. This will be the first ever meeting between the two sides, making historical comparisons impossible. The lack of H2H data puts even more weight on current form and league level when assessing the likely outcome.
Win Probability: Itabirito MG Women or Bahia BA Women?
We calculate the outcome probabilities by starting with the bookmaker odds (home 8.00, draw 2.75, away 1.62), removing the margin, and then adjusting for team form and division strength. The raw implied chances are 11.3% for a home win, 32.9% for the draw, and 55.8% for an away win. Given Itabirito's perfect five-match winning streak, we give them a slight boost, but the gulf in league level (A2 vs A1) and Bahia's unbeaten run keep the visitors firmly in control. The final probabilities are: Itabirito MG Women win โ 15%, Draw โ 30%, Bahia BA Women win โ 55%. The most likely match outcome is an away victory for Bahia.
Odds & Match Prediction
The available 1X2 odds show Bahia BA Women as the strong favorite at 1.62, with the draw priced at 2.75 and a home win for Itabirito MG Women at a long 8.00. Bookmakers clearly expect the top-division side to advance. Our Itabirito MG Women vs Bahia BA Women prediction aligns with this view: Bahia should have too much quality, but the draw is a real possibility given their recent sequence of stalemates. A 1-0 or 2-0 away win looks the most probable scoreline. For betting tips, the away win offers value, while the draw could be a sensible hedge for cautious punters.
Itabirito MG Women vs Bahia BA Women โ FAQ
- Who will win Itabirito MG Women vs Bahia BA Women?
- Bahia BA Women are the most likely winners with a 55% probability. Itabirito MG Women have only a 15% chance of winning, while the draw is at 30%. The visitors' top-division experience and solid form give them a clear edge.
- What is the win probability for Bahia BA Women?
- Bahia BA Women have a 55% chance of winning this match. This is based on the implied odds (1.62) and their unbeaten run in the Campeonato Brasileiro A1 Women, adjusted for the opponent's perfect form in lower divisions.
- When is the Itabirito MG Women vs Bahia BA Women match?
- The match is scheduled for July 21, 2026, at 23:00 UTC. It is a Copa do Brasil Women fixture, the premier domestic cup competition in Brazil.
- What are the odds for Itabirito MG Women vs Bahia BA Women?
- The 1X2 odds are: home win (Itabirito MG Women) 8.00, draw 2.75, away win (Bahia BA Women) 1.62. These prices reflect Bahia's status as the strong favorite.
- What is the head-to-head record between these teams?
- There is no head-to-head record. This will be the first ever meeting between Itabirito MG Women and Bahia BA Women, so no historical data is available to compare.