Groningen - AZ Alkmaar prediction 22 March 2026

AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen prediction for the Eredivisie match on Mar 22 at 15:45. Based on the data, AZ Alkmaar is the clear favorite with a 58% win probability, while Groningen has just a 15% chance. Read on for expert betting tips and a complete match preview.

Team Form

AZ Alkmaar come into this fixture on a run of five consecutive draws. Their last five results: a 3-3 friendly draw with Gent, 3-3 vs NAC Breda, 1-1 at Feyenoord, 2-2 vs Twente, and a 0-0 at Go Ahead Eagles. The team is solid but has struggled to turn draws into wins.

Groningen's recent away form shows inconsistency: they lost 2-1 to Heracles Almelo in a friendly, lost 2-0 at Ajax, beat Heracles Almelo 2-1, defeated NEC Nijmegen 2-1, and then lost 3-2 to Excelsior. Two wins and three defeats in their last five indicates defensive fragility on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The historical head‑to‑head heavily favors AZ Alkmaar. In 21 meetings, AZ have won 14, Groningen 4, with 3 draws. Recent meetings include a 4-1 AZ win in August 2025, a 3-0 victory in May 2025, a 3-1 KNVB Beker win in December 2024, and a 1-0 AZ success in March 2023. AZ have dominated this matchup, particularly at home.

Win Probability: AZ Alkmaar or Groningen?

We calculate AZ Alkmaar’s win probability at 58%, a draw at 27%, and Groningen at just 15%. The reasoning: despite AZ’s drawing run, their head‑to‑head edge (14 wins vs 4) and home advantage are too strong to ignore. Groningen’s away struggles and defensive lapses make an away victory unlikely. A low‑scoring affair or an AZ win is the most probable outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Betting odds for this match are currently not available. Based on the stats, bookmakers would likely install AZ Alkmaar as strong favorites. Our match prediction: AZ Alkmaar to win, probably with a narrow margin. The total goals may stay under 3.5 given AZ’s recent pattern of draws and Groningen’s scoring troubles away from home.