Atmosfera Mazeikiai - Hegelmann Litauen II prediction 25 July 2026

Our Atmosfera Mazeikiai vs Hegelmann Litauen II prediction for the 1 Lyga match on July 25, 2026, gives the home side a 65% chance to win. The game kicks off at 12:00 UTC, and bookmakers have installed Atmosfera Mazeikiai as the clear favorite with odds of 1.29. Based on the form, league table, and head-to-head record, we expect a home victory.

Team Form

Atmosfera Mazeikiai have shown inconsistent form in their last five 1 Lyga matches, with a record of L-W-L-D-W. Their most recent outing was a 0-1 home defeat against Be1 NFA Kaunas on July 1. They also lost 0-1 to Minija Kretinga at home and drew 1-1 at Lietava Jonava. The two wins came 2-1 away at Ekranas Panevezio and 2-0 at home against Vilnius Zalgiris B. Overall, they have scored 23 goals and conceded 17 in 15 league games. Hegelmann Litauen II come into this fixture with a recent form of L-W-W-L-L. Their last match ended in a 3-1 away loss to Vilnius Zalgiris B on July 2. They previously beat Lietava Jonava 2-1 at home and won 1-0 at BFA Vilnius. The two defeats were a 0-1 home loss to FK Babrungas Plunge and a heavy 1-6 away loss to FK Tauras Taurage. The away side has struggled for consistency, particularly in defence.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these two sides is limited to four meetings, all in the 1 Lyga. Atmosfera Mazeikiai have won once, while three matches ended in draws. Hegelmann Litauen II are yet to record a win. The most recent clash on March 15, 2026, saw Atmosfera Mazeikiai triumph 3-0 away. The previous encounters were a 2-2 draw on July 27, 2025, a 1-1 draw on March 16, 2025, and a 1-1 draw on June 23, 2023. The overall goals count in these four matches is 7-4 in favor of Atmosfera.

League Table Positions

Atmosfera Mazeikiai currently sit 9th in the 1 Lyga standings with 21 points from 15 matches (6 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses). They have a goal difference of +6. Hegelmann Litauen II are not among the top 12 teams listed in the table, indicating they are placed lower in the league. The significant gap in the table suggests a mismatch on paper, favoring the home side.

Win Probability: Atmosfera Mazeikiai or Hegelmann Litauen II?

We calculate the win probabilities for this match as follows: Atmosfera Mazeikiai win 65%, draw 22%, Hegelmann Litauen II win 13%. The calculation starts from the bookmakers' odds (1.29, 4.95, 7.30), which imply a home win probability of about 70% after removing the margin. We then adjust for the head-to-head record (three draws in four games) and the recent form of both teams, which is mixed. The away team's lower league position and the home advantage for Atmosfera Mazeikiai further support a home win, but the high frequency of draws in past meetings raises the draw probability slightly.

Odds & Match Prediction

The latest odds from the bookmakers are: home win for Atmosfera Mazeikiai at 1.29, a draw at 4.95, and an away win for Hegelmann Litauen II at 7.30. This makes the home team a heavy favorite. Our Atmosfera Mazeikiai vs Hegelmann Litauen II prediction is a home victory. The data points to a likely win for the hosts, but a draw is not out of the question given the head-to-head history. For bettors, the 1.29 odds may not offer great value, but the match outcome is expected to favor the home side.