Fluminense SC - Atletico Tubarao SC prediction 22 July 2026

Our Fluminense SC vs Atletico Tubarao SC prediction for the Campeonato Catarinense. Serie B match on Jul 22, 2026, at 18:00 points to a tight contest. Based on league positions and recent form, Atletico Tubarao SC enters as the slight favorite with a 35% win probability, while Fluminense SC has a 30% chance and the draw stands at 35%.

Team Form

Fluminense SC's last five matches show a mixed run: D, W, D, L, L. They drew 1-1 at home against Guarani de Palhoca SC on Jul 15, won 2-1 away at Nacao SC on Jul 12, drew 1-1 at home with Blumenau SC on Jul 04, lost 4-2 away to Hercilio Luz SC on Jun 28, and lost 1-0 away to CF Caravaggio SC on Jun 14. At home, they have managed just one win in their last five outings, with two draws and two defeats, scoring only 4 goals in that span.

Atletico Tubarao SC's recent form reads L, L, W, W, W. They lost 2-1 away to CF Caravaggio SC on Jul 15, lost 3-2 at home to Metropolitano SC on Jul 12, beat Nacao SC 1-0 at home on Jul 05, won 3-0 away at Jaragua SC on Jul 01, and won 2-0 away at Juventus Jaragua do Sul SC on Jun 21. Despite two recent setbacks, their away form remains solid with two wins and one loss in the last three road trips.

Head-to-Head Record

These two sides have met twice in this competition. Fluminense SC won the home fixture 3-1 on Jun 28, 2025, while Atletico Tubarao SC returned the favor with a 1-0 home victory on May 31, 2026. The head-to-head record stands at 1 home win each, with no draws, highlighting the importance of home advantage in this matchup.

League Table Positions

In the overall Campeonato Catarinense. Serie B standings, Atletico Tubarao SC sits 5th with 14 points from 9 matches (3 wins, 5 draws, 1 loss, 11 goals scored, 7 conceded). Fluminense SC is 7th with 10 points (3 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses, 7 goals scored, 10 conceded). The home table shows Fluminense SC 8th with 4 points from 5 home games (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses). Atletico Tubarao SC's away record places them 4th with 6 points from 5 away matches (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss). The visitors have been harder to beat on the road, losing only once all season away from home.

Win Probability: Fluminense SC or Atletico Tubarao SC?

After analyzing all available data, we calculate the following win probabilities: Fluminense SC has a 30% chance of winning, the draw is at 35%, and Atletico Tubarao SC has a 35% chance. These percentages are based on league table positions, recent form, head-to-head balance, and home/away splits. Atletico Tubarao SC's superior overall record (only one defeat all season) and their ability to grind out draws away from home give them a marginal edge. Fluminense SC's poor home form (just one win in five) reduces their advantage as hosts. The draw is a very realistic outcome given Atletico Tubarao SC's five draws in nine league games.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds are not currently available for this fixture. Based on the stats, the market would likely price Atletico Tubarao SC as a narrow favorite, with the draw also offered at relatively short odds. Our match prediction aligns with the probability model: a draw or an away win appears the most likely result. Fluminense SC will need to drastically improve their home performances to overturn the visitors' solid defensive record. A low-scoring affair is probable, given both teams' modest goal tallies.