Argentino de Quilmes - Arsenal de Sarandi prediction 14 July 2026

Our Arsenal de Sarandi vs Argentino de Quilmes prediction for the Primera B Metropolitana clash on July 14, 2026, points to a tight contest with the home side holding a marginal advantage. Based on form, league positions, and bookmaker odds, Arsenal de Sarandi enters the match as a slight favorite with a 35% win probability, while a draw is equally likely at 35%, and Argentino de Quilmes has a 30% chance. The match kicks off at 18:00 local time.

Team Form

Arsenal de Sarandi is in outstanding shape, winning four and drawing one of their last five league matches. They scored 11 goals in that span, including a 3-1 home win over Defensores Unidos and a 4-2 victory against Deportivo Merlo. Their only dropped points came in a 0-0 home draw with Dock Sud.

Argentino de Quilmes, by contrast, has been inconsistent. Their last five results read: L, L, D, W, D. A 3-0 away loss to Argentino Merlo and a 0-3 home defeat to Talleres Remedios highlight defensive frailties. The lone win was a 4-2 away success at Brown De Adrogue.

Head-to-Head Record

The only previous meeting between these sides in the Primera B Metropolitana took place on March 4, 2026. Argentino de Quilmes won that match 1-0 away at Arsenal de Sarandi. The head-to-head record stands at 0 home wins, 0 draws, and 1 away win.

League Table Positions

Arsenal de Sarandi sits 2nd in the overall standings with 40 points from 21 matches (11 wins, 7 draws, 3 losses). They have scored 31 goals and conceded only 16. At home, they rank 2nd with 20 points from 10 games. Argentino de Quilmes is not among the top 12 teams listed in the table, indicating a lower-half position and a significant gap in quality compared to the hosts.

Win Probability: Arsenal de Sarandi or Argentino de Quilmes?

We calculate the outcome probabilities by starting with the average bookmaker odds (home 4.40, draw 2.30, away 2.35). The implied chances are 20.7% for a home win, 40.1% for a draw, and 39.2% for an away win after removing the margin. However, Arsenal de Sarandi’s dominant form (4W-1D-0L in last five) and 2nd-place standing force a significant adjustment. Home advantage and the visitors’ leaky defence further tilt the scales. Our adjusted probabilities are:

• Arsenal de Sarandi win: 35%
• Draw: 35%
• Argentino de Quilmes win: 30%

Arsenal de Sarandi is the more likely winner, but the match is poised on a knife-edge. A draw is a very realistic outcome given the odds and the visitors’ ability to grind out results on the road.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as an open contest. The average odds across major platforms are 4.40 for an Arsenal de Sarandi victory, 2.30 for a draw, and 2.35 for an Argentino de Quilmes win. These prices reflect the visitors’ historical edge in the head-to-head and a perceived balance, but they undervalue the hosts’ current momentum. Based on the stats, Arsenal de Sarandi is the value pick, but a low-scoring draw cannot be ruled out. Our Arsenal de Sarandi vs Argentino de Quilmes prediction: the home side has the edge, yet the safest betting angle may be the double chance (1X) given the high draw probability.