ARS Sao Martinho - Machico prediction 1 March 2026

Looking for the ARS Sao Martinho vs Machico prediction? The Campeonato de Portugal match is set for March 1, 2026, at 11:00. Based on our analysis, Machico has a 40% chance of winning, while ARS Sao Martinho has a 30% probability, and the draw stands at 30%.

Team Form

ARS Sao Martinho's recent form in their last five matches reads W, L, W, D, L. They beat Desportivo Moncao 3-1, lost 0-2 to Mirandela, won 2-0 against CD Ribeira Brava, drew 0-0 with CD Celoricense, and lost 0-1 to Vilaverdense. That’s two wins, one draw, and two defeats—a mixed run that shows inconsistency, especially at home where they have lost two of those five.

Machico come into this fixture with a W, D, W, L, W form line. Their last five results include a 1-0 win over CD Ribeira Brava, a 0-0 draw at CD Celoricense, a 1-0 victory against Vilaverdense, a 2-1 loss at Camacha, and a 2-0 home win over Braganca. Three wins, one draw, and one loss show better form than their opponents, with two clean sheets in the last three outings.

Head-to-Head Record

The last four meetings between these two sides have been perfectly even, with two wins apiece and no draws. The most recent encounter ended in a 2-1 away win for Machico. All four matches were won by the visiting team, highlighting how home advantage has not played a decisive role in this fixture. ARS Sao Martinho have won twice, Machico twice, and the overall goal difference is narrow.

Win Probability: ARS Sao Martinho or Machico?

We calculate the win probabilities as follows: ARS Sao Martinho 30%, draw 30%, Machico 40%. The head-to-head record is deadlocked, but Machico’s recent form—three wins in their last five—gives them a slight edge. ARS Sao Martinho’s inconsistency at home, where they have mixed wins with losses to Mirandela and Vilaverdense, lowers their chances. Machico have shown they can win on the road and have kept things tight defensively. Therefore, the visitors are the more likely winner, though a draw is a very real possibility given the balanced H2H history.

Odds & Match Prediction

Specific bookmaker odds are not available in the data, but based on the stats, Machico is the narrow favourite. Our prediction is Machico to win (40% probability), with the draw also a strong option at 30%. ARS Sao Martinho will need to find home form to overturn the recent trend. The stats point to a closely fought contest, likely decided by a single goal.