CA Sarmiento - Argentinos Juniors prediction 23 July 2026

The CA Sarmiento vs Argentinos Juniors prediction for July 23, 2026 sees the draw as the most likely outcome with a 45% probability. The Primera Division match at Estadio Eva Perón kicks off at 22:30, and our analysis gives the visitors a 33% chance of winning, while the home side have a 22% shot.

Team Form

CA Sarmiento come into this game with two wins and three losses in their last five matches (L, W, L, L, W). Their most recent outing was a heavy 4-0 defeat away to Belgrano, but they won their last home fixture 1-0 against Tigre. Overall, Sarmiento's form has been inconsistent, with only one clean sheet in those five games.

Argentinos Juniors have been harder to beat, posting two draws, two wins, and one loss (D, D, W, L, W). They drew 1-1 at home to Belgrano and 0-0 against Huracan in their last two matches. The away side have scored in three of their last five, but their only away win in that run was a 2-1 victory at Huracan.

Head-to-Head Record

The last five meetings between the two sides show a balanced record: CA Sarmiento won twice, Argentinos Juniors won twice, and one match ended in a draw. Crucially, both of Sarmiento's wins came at Estadio Eva Perón – a 2-0 victory in April 2023 and a 1-0 win in June 2022. The most recent clash, in January 2026, saw Argentinos Juniors win 1-0 at home.

League Table Positions

Argentinos Juniors sit 5th in the overall Primera Division standings with 29 points from 16 games (8 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses). They have the best home record in the league, but their away form is not among the top eight. CA Sarmiento are outside the top 12 overall, but they are a different proposition at home: ranked 4th in the home table with 5 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 8 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 6.

Win Probability: CA Sarmiento or Argentinos Juniors?

Based on the bookmakers' odds and a detailed analysis of form, head-to-head record, and home/away strength, the calculated win probabilities are: CA Sarmiento 22%, draw 45%, Argentinos Juniors 33%. The odds heavily favor the stalemate, and Sarmiento's strong home record against Argentinos Juniors justifies a slight upward adjustment of their chances from the raw odds-implied 20.5%. The visitors are the more likely winner if there is one, but the draw is the single most probable outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Pre-match odds from bookmakers show CA Sarmiento at 4.50, the draw at 1.83, and Argentinos Juniors at 2.75. These prices underline the expectation of a tight, low-scoring affair. Considering the stats, the safest prediction is a draw. For those seeking a result, Argentinos Juniors hold a slight edge based on league position and overall form, but CA Sarmiento's perfect home record against them in recent H2H meetings cannot be ignored. Our CA Sarmiento vs Argentinos Juniors prediction is a draw, with a 1-1 scoreline a plausible outcome.