Alianza FC El Salvador - CD FAS prediction 12 April 2026

Our Alianza FC El Salvador vs CD FAS prediction for the Primera Division match on Apr 12, 2026, at 01:00 UTC points to CD FAS as the slight favorite with a 40% win probability, while Alianza FC El Salvador has a 30% chance and the draw is also at 30%. This analysis is based on recent form, head-to-head record, and league table positions.

Team Form

Alianza FC El Salvador come into this match with a mixed run: L, L, W, W, D in their last five outings. Their most recent results include a 0-2 loss to CD Aguila El Salvador and a 1-2 defeat away to the same opponent, but they did beat Fuerte San Francisco 1-0 and Zacatecoluca FC 4-2 before that. CD FAS are in slightly better shape with a sequence of W, W, L, D, D. They recently won 3-0 away at CD Aguila El Salvador and 2-0 at home to Municipal Limeno, but lost 1-0 away to Municipal Limeno and drew twice with Cacahuatique.

Head-to-Head Record

In the overall head-to-head, Alianza FC El Salvador have won 12 of the 25 meetings, CD FAS have won 6, and 7 ended in draws. The recent history tells a different story: CD FAS have won the last two encounters, both away from home — 2-0 in April 2026 and 3-1 in February 2026. Before that, Alianza won 2-0 at home in August 2025 and 1-0 at home in April 2025, with a 2-2 draw in October 2025 in between.

League Table Positions

Both teams are close in the overall standings. CD FAS sit 2nd with 44 points from 22 games, while Alianza are 3rd with the same points but a lower goal difference. At home, Alianza have a record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses (4th in the home table), while CD FAS away from home have 4 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats (5th in the away table). This suggests a balanced contest with little to separate the sides.

Win Probability: Alianza FC El Salvador or CD FAS?

Based on the available data, we assign a 30% chance of an Alianza FC El Salvador win, a 30% probability of a draw, and a 40% chance of a CD FAS victory. The reasoning is clear: CD FAS hold the edge in recent head-to-head meetings (two straight away wins), their form is slightly better (two wins in the last five vs Alianza’s two wins and two losses), and although Alianza have home advantage, their home record is not dominant. The league table positions are almost identical, so the visitors’ recent momentum gives them a narrow advantage.

Odds & Match Prediction

No bookmaker odds were provided in the data, so our prediction is based purely on statistical analysis. CD FAS are seen as the more likely winner, with a 40% probability, but the high chance of a draw (30%) and Alianza’s home threat (30%) make this a match where any outcome is possible. Our betting tip would be to back the draw or a narrow CD FAS win, given the numbers.