Deportivo Garcilaso - Alianza Atletico prediction 11 May 2026
Deportivo Garcilaso
Alianza Atletico
Sporting CristalDeportivo GarcilasoDeportivo GarcilasoJuan Pablo IIComerciantes UnidosDeportivo GarcilasoDeportivo GarcilasoUTC CajamarcaDeportivo GarcilasoAlianza AtleticoLos Chankas CYCDeportivo GarcilasoDeportivo GarcilasoFBC MelgarUniversitario De DeportesDeportivo GarcilasoSport HuancayoDeportivo GarcilasoDeportivo GarcilasoSport BoysAtletico GrauDeportivo GarcilasoDeportivo GarcilasoAlianza LimaCusco FCDeportivo GarcilasoAlianza AtleticoDeportivo GarcilasoDeportivo GarcilasoCiencianoCusco FCAlianza AtleticoFBC MelgarAlianza AtleticoTigreAlianza AtleticoAlianza AtleticoFC CajamarcaMacaraAlianza AtleticoJuan Pablo IIAlianza AtleticoDeportivo GarcilasoAlianza AtleticoAlianza AtleticoAmerica de CaliAlianza AtleticoSport HuancayoAlianza AtleticoMacaraUniversitario De DeportesAlianza AtleticoComerciantes UnidosAlianza AtleticoAlianza AtleticoSport BoysAmerica de CaliAlianza AtleticoAlianza AtleticoTigreDeportivo GarcilasoAlianza AtleticoAlianza AtleticoDeportivo GarcilasoDeportivo GarcilasoAlianza AtleticoAlianza AtleticoDeportivo GarcilasoAlianza AtleticoDeportivo GarcilasoAlianza AtleticoDeportivo GarcilasoDeportivo GarcilasoAlianza Atletico| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alianza Lima | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 30:8 | +22 | 40 |
| 2 |  Los Chankas CYC | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 25:21 | +4 | 34 |
| 3 |  Cienciano | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 34:22 | +12 | 33 |
| 4 |  Universitario | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24:15 | +9 | 29 |
| 5 |  FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29:20 | +9 | 28 |
| 6 |  Cusco FC | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 21:24 | -3 | 27 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21:18 | +3 | 26 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20:18 | +2 | 21 |
| 9 |  Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18:20 | -2 | 21 |
| 10 |  AD Tarma | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 22:21 | +1 | 20 |
| 11 |  Sport Boys | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 15:19 | -4 | 20 |
| 12 |  Sporting Cristal | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 28:30 | -2 | 19 |
| 13 |  UTC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 21:26 | -5 | 18 |
| 14 |  Cesar Vallejo Moquegua | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 17:24 | -7 | 18 |
| 15 |  FC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 23:28 | -5 | 17 |
| 16 |  Atletico Grau | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 12:18 | -6 | 16 |
| 17 |  Sport Huancayo | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 21:31 | -10 | 16 |
| 18 |  Juan Pablo II | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 22:40 | -18 | 16 |
Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso Prediction (May 11)
Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso prediction for the Primera Division match on May 11, 2026, at 18:00. Based on recent form and head-to-head record, Alianza Atletico is the slight favorite with a 45% win probability.
Team Form
Alianza Atletico's last five matches show inconsistent results: L, L, D, D, W. They suffered defeats against FBC Melgar (3-1) and Tigre (2-0), followed by draws with FC Cajamarca (1-1) and Macara (0-0), before a 2-0 away win over Juan Pablo II. The team has struggled for consistency, managing just one victory in this stretch.
Deportivo Garcilaso, on the other hand, is in excellent form with four wins and one draw in their last five (W, D, W, W, W). Notable results include a 4-1 home win over Juan Pablo II and a 2-0 victory against UTC Cajamarca. Their only dropped points came in a 0-0 draw at Comerciantes Unidos.
Head-to-Head Record
Alianza Atletico has dominated recent meetings, winning the last four encounters. This includes a 2-0 home win in March 2026, a 4-2 away victory in October 2025, and a 1-0 home success in May 2025. Historically, the home team has won 5 of the 7 all-time clashes, with no draws, underlining the importance of home advantage in this fixture.
League Table Positions
In the Primera Division standings, Deportivo Garcilaso sits 7th with 26 points from 17 games, while Alianza Atletico is 8th with 21 points. The gap is just five points. Alianza Atletico's home form has been unremarkable (outside the top 8), and Deportivo Garcilaso's away record is similarly modest, making this a closely matched contest on paper.
Win Probability: Alianza Atletico or Deportivo Garcilaso?
We calculate the win probabilities as follows: Alianza Atletico 45%, Draw 25%, Deportivo Garcilaso 30%. The home side gets the edge thanks to their strong head-to-head record and the historical home bias in this matchup. However, Deportivo Garcilaso's superior current form and slightly higher league position prevent them from being clear underdogs. The draw is a realistic outcome given both teams' patchy home/away performances.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers' odds are not available for this fixture at the moment. Based on the stats, our prediction leans towards an Alianza Atletico win. The combination of home advantage and a dominant H2H streak makes them the likely victors, but Deportivo Garcilaso's form means a tight contest is expected.
Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso — FAQ
- Who will win Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
- Alianza Atletico has a 45% chance to win, Deportivo Garcilaso a 30% chance, and the draw is at 25%. Alianza Atletico is the slight favorite due to home advantage and a strong recent head-to-head record.
- What is the win probability for Alianza Atletico?
- Alianza Atletico has a 45% probability of winning. This is based on their home advantage and historical dominance over Deportivo Garcilaso, despite their inconsistent recent form.
- When is the Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso match?
- The match takes place on May 11, 2026, at 18:00 local time. It is a Primera Division fixture in Peru.
- What are the odds for the match?
- Odds are not currently available for this match. Check closer to kickoff for updated betting markets.
- What is the head-to-head record between Alianza Atletico and Deportivo Garcilaso?
- In their last four meetings, Alianza Atletico has won all four, including a 2-0 home win in March 2026. Overall, the home team has won 5 of the 7 all-time encounters.