Alhaurino - Mijas Las Lagunas prediction 25 January 2026

Our Alhaurino vs Mijas Las Lagunas prediction points to the hosts as the slight favorite with a 37% win probability for this Tercera Federacion clash on Jan 25. The draw (35%) is also a strong possibility, while Mijas Las Lagunas come in with a 28% chance.

Team Form

Alhaurino Recent Results

Alhaurino's last five matches read D-W-L-W-L, earning 7 points. The sequence started with a 1–1 home draw against Atletico Mancha Real, followed by a 1–0 away win at Arenas Armilla and a 2–0 defeat at Torreperogil. They bounced back with a commanding 3–0 home victory over Atletico De Porcuna Cf, then fell 1–0 at Torre del Mar. Over this period they scored 5 goals and conceded 4. Notably, their two home fixtures produced 4 goals and only 1 conceded, highlighting a potent attack at their own ground.

Mijas Las Lagunas Recent Results

Mijas Las Lagunas arrive with form W-D-D-W-L, totaling 8 points from the last five. They thrashed UD Melilla B 4–1 at home, played out a 0–0 stalemate at Martos CD, drew 2–2 at Motril, beat FC Marbelli 1–0 at home, and lost 1–0 at Atletico Mancha Real. In these games they scored 7 and conceded 4. However, their away numbers tell a different story: three road trips yielded only 2 points (D2 L1) and merely 2 goals scored, underlining their struggles outside their own stadium.

Head-to-Head Record

These sides have met only twice in recent Tercera Federacion history. Mijas Las Lagunas hold a small edge with one win and one draw. The first encounter on Sep 14 saw Mijas Las Lagunas triumph 1–0 at home, while the return fixture ended 1–1 at Alhaurino. That record gives the visitors a psychological advantage, but Alhaurino’s home draw in the most recent meeting suggests they can compete.

Win Probability: Alhaurino or Mijas Las Lagunas?

We have calculated the match outcome probabilities based on recent form, head-to-head data, and home/away performance:

• Alhaurino win: 37%
• Draw: 35%
• Mijas Las Lagunas win: 28%

Alhaurino’s home strength – 4 points from 2 home matches with 4 goals – is the key driver of their favorite status. Mijas Las Lagunas’s away record (0 wins in 3, just 2 goals) drags their win probability down to 28%, while the high draw percentage (35%) reflects the competitive balance and the 1–1 result these teams produced earlier in the season.

Odds & Match Prediction

No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture, so our analysis relies entirely on the statistical data provided. Our prediction backs Alhaurino to edge it with a 37% chance, but the draw at 35% is nearly as likely. A cautious punt on the home side or a draw no bet option would be the most sensible approach based on the numbers.