River Plate - Aldosivi prediction 18 July 2026

The Aldosivi vs River Plate prediction for the Cup match on Jul 18, 2026, at 00:45 UTC points to a tight contest. Based on bookmaker odds and recent form, Aldosivi enters as the favorite with a 48% win probability, while River Plate has a 22% chance and the draw stands at 30%.

Team Form

Aldosivi's recent form has been poor. In their last five matches, they have recorded three draws and two losses (D, L, D, L, D). They failed to win any of those games, scoring just 3 goals across those fixtures. Their most recent result was a 1-1 home draw against Independiente Rivadavia on May 3. Before that, they lost 1-3 away to River Plate on Apr 26, drew 1-1 at home with Racing Club Avellaneda on Apr 19, lost 0-1 away to CA Belgrano de Cordoba on Apr 11, and drew 0-0 at home with Estudiantes Rio Cuarto on Apr 4.

River Plate's form is more encouraging. Their last five results show two wins, two draws, and one loss (D, W, L, D, W). They come into this match after a 2-2 friendly draw with Flamengo RJ on Jul 3. Prior to that, they beat Blooming 3-0 at home in the Copa Sudamericana on May 28, lost 2-3 at home to CA Belgrano de Cordoba in the league on May 24, drew 1-1 at home with Red Bull Bragantino SP in the Copa Sudamericana on May 21, and won 1-0 at home against Rosario Central in the league on May 16.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors River Plate. In 8 previous meetings, Aldosivi has never won, with 1 draw and 7 River Plate victories. The most recent clash was on Apr 26, 2026, in the Primera Division, where River Plate won 3-1 away. In Cup competitions specifically, River Plate has won all three encounters: 3-0 in 2022, 4-1 in 2021, and a 6-0 thrashing in 2019. The only draw came in a 1-1 Cup match in April 2019.

Win Probability: Aldosivi or River Plate?

After analyzing the odds, team form, and head-to-head statistics, we calculate the following win probabilities for this match:

• Aldosivi win: 48%
• Draw: 30%
• River Plate win: 22%

Bookmakers initially implied a higher chance for Aldosivi (around 59% based on average odds of 1.40), but the team's winless run and River Plate's superior H2H record justify a downward adjustment. Aldosivi's home advantage is factored in, but their inability to secure wins recently makes the draw a significant possibility at 30%. River Plate's 22% win probability reflects their better form and historical dominance, though the odds suggest they remain underdogs on the road.

Odds & Match Prediction

The odds for this Cup fixture show Aldosivi as the clear favorite. Across multiple bookmakers, the home win odds range from 1.38 to 1.44, the draw is priced between 2.30 and 4.33, and an away win for River Plate is offered at 5.90 to 8.69. These odds reflect the market's belief that Aldosivi will capitalize on home soil, despite their poor form.

Our prediction: based on the stats, Aldosivi is more likely to win, but the value may lie in the draw given the high probability (30%) compared to the odds. River Plate's chances are slim but cannot be dismissed entirely, especially considering their dominant head-to-head record. A low-scoring match is possible, with Aldosivi's recent draws often featuring under 2.5 goals.