Alcorcon - Teruel prediction 21 March 2026

The Alcorcon vs Teruel prediction for their Primera Federacion clash on March 21, 2026, points towards a home victory. Based on odds, head-to-head dominance, and recent form, Alcorcon enters this match as the clear favorite with a calculated win probability of 58%. The match kicks off at 17:30 local time.

Team Form

Alcorcon has shown mixed results lately, recording two wins, two losses, and one draw in their last five outings (W, L, L, W, D). Their most recent match ended in a 1-1 draw away at Sevilla Atletico. Prior to that, they displayed offensive firepower with a 6-2 home thrashing of Marbella. However, defensive frailties were exposed in a 0-1 home loss to CE Europa and a 1-2 defeat at FC Cartagena.

Teruel is struggling significantly for consistency. They have failed to win any of their last five matches (L, D, L, D, L). The team is finding goals hard to come by, suffering a 1-3 defeat at Marbella and a 0-1 loss at Antequera CF. Draws against Atletico Sanluqueno and Tarazona (both 0-0) show they can be stubborn defensively, but a 1-3 loss to Hercules CF highlights their vulnerability away from home.

Head-to-Head Record

The historical record is completely one-sided. In three previous meetings, Alcorcon has won all three encounters, with Teruel yet to register a draw or a victory. The most recent clash happened earlier this season on March 21, 2026, where Alcorcon won 2-1 away at Teruel. Another 2-1 victory came at home in September 2025, alongside a 1-0 Cup win in November 2021. Alcorcon has outscored Teruel 5-2 across these three matches.

League Table Positions

While exact live table positions and points are not available, the match context confirms both teams compete in Spain's Primera Federacion. Alcorcon's superior head-to-head record and better recent form (2 wins in 5 vs 0 wins in 5) indicate they likely hold a more comfortable position above Teruel in the standings. The win probability heavily factors in this performance gap.

Win Probability: Alcorcon or Teruel?

After analyzing the stats, the calculated win probability for this match is as follows: Alcorcon has a 58% chance of winning, the draw is at 27%, and Teruel has a 15% chance.

This probability distribution is calculated using a base of historical H2H outcomes (100% Alcorcon win rate) adjusted for the inherent possibility of a draw and Teruel's recent stubborn defensive showings. The model gives Alcorcon a significant edge (nearly 3 in 5 chance) due to their perfect H2H record and home advantage. Teruel's 15% reflects their clear underdog status, as they have failed to win any recent match.

Odds & Match Prediction

Specific match odds are not provided in the data, but based on the win probability, Alcorcon would be listed as heavy favorites by bookmakers. The value likely lies in backing the home side to continue their dominance. Our Alcorcon vs Teruel prediction is a home win. Given Alcorcon's scoring record against Teruel and their recent 6-goal outburst, a bet on Alcorcon to score over 1.5 goals could also be considered based on the available betting tips and head-to-head statistics.