Yelimay Semey - Alashkert FC prediction 16 July 2026

The Alashkert FC vs Yelimay Semey prediction for this UEFA Conference League Qualification match on Jul 16, 2026, points to a home victory. Alashkert FC are the favorites with a 60% win probability, according to our analysis of the latest odds and team form. The match kicks off at 15:00 UTC, with the tie evenly balanced after a 1-1 draw in the first leg.

Team Form

Alashkert FC

Alashkert FC are unbeaten in their last five matches (W3 D2). Their recent results:

• Jul 09: Alashkert FC 1-1 Yelimay Semey (UEFA Conference League Qualification)
• May 26: Alashkert FC 2-0 Shirak (Premier League)
• May 16: Van Charentsavan 0-1 Alashkert FC (Premier League)
• May 09: Alashkert FC 3-1 Gandzasar Kapan (Premier League)
• May 02: Bkma Yerevan 2-2 Alashkert FC (Premier League)

At home, Alashkert have won two of their last three, scoring seven goals in those games. Their only home blip was the first-leg draw against Yelimay.

Yelimay Semey

Yelimay Semey have recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five outings. Their recent form:

• Jul 12: Atyrau 0-0 Yelimay Semey (Premier League)
• Jul 09: Alashkert FC 1-1 Yelimay Semey (UEFA Conference League Qualification)
• Jul 04: Kyzylzhar 0-1 Yelimay Semey (Premier League)
• Jun 27: Yelimay Semey 2-0 Kyzylzhar (Premier League)
• Jun 21: Yelimay Semey 1-2 Atyrau (Premier League)

Yelimay have been resilient away from home, with two draws and a win in their last three road trips. However, they have managed only one clean sheet in that run.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record consists of just one match: the first leg on Jul 09, 2026, which ended Alashkert FC 1-1 Yelimay Semey. That draw leaves the tie wide open, but Alashkert's home advantage in both legs (as per the fixture schedule) gives them a slight edge. There have been no previous meetings before this season.

Win Probability: Alashkert FC or Yelimay Semey?

Based on the bookmakers' odds and team form, we calculate the following win probabilities for this match:

• Alashkert FC win: 60%
• Draw: 25%
• Yelimay Semey win: 15%

These percentages start from the inverse of the best available odds (1.71 home, 3.70 draw, 6.00 away), which implied a 57.2% home win chance after removing the bookmaker margin. We then adjusted upward for Alashkert's strong home performances and unbeaten run, while Yelimay's away resilience prevented a larger shift. The first-leg draw also suggests Alashkert will be motivated to avoid another stalemate. In short, Alashkert FC are the more likely winners, but a draw remains a significant possibility.

Alashkert FC vs Yelimay Semey Prediction & Odds

Bookmakers have priced Alashkert FC as clear favorites. The odds for a home win range from 1.53 to 1.71 across different bookies, with the draw available at 2.02 to 3.70, and an away win at 5.00 to 6.00. These odds reflect the expectation that Alashkert will control the game. Our Alashkert FC vs Yelimay Semey prediction is a home win, aligning with the 60% probability. For betting tips, the 1.71 odds for an Alashkert victory offer decent value. The draw at 3.70 could also be worth a small stake given the first-leg result and Yelimay's stubborn away form. Ultimately, the stats point to Alashkert FC having the best chance to advance.