AD San Carlos - Municipal Liberia prediction 26 July 2026

The AD San Carlos vs Municipal Liberia prediction for this Primera Division match on Jul 26 at 20:00 points towards a closely contested affair. Based on the latest odds and team form, the draw is the most probable outcome at 38%, with Municipal Liberia holding a slight edge at 32% over AD San Carlos at 30%.

Team Form

AD San Carlos enters this match in poor form, with only one win in their last five matches (W, L, L, L, D). Their most recent result was a 1-1 home draw against Municipal Perez Zeledon on Apr 25. The team has struggled defensively, conceding 9 goals in these five outings while scoring 7.

Municipal Liberia shows stronger recent form with three wins in their last five (W, W, W, D, L). They secured a 2-1 home victory against LD Alajuelense on Apr 26 and a 1-0 away win at Sporting San Jose on Apr 22. Their only recent defeat came against Deportivo Saprissa on May 10.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors AD San Carlos, who have won 12 of the 17 previous meetings. Municipal Liberia has 5 wins, and there have been no draws. However, recent encounters have been mixed: Municipal Liberia won the last meeting 5-1 at home on Apr 07, 2026, while AD San Carlos won 1-0 at home on Jan 29, 2026. The last four matches have seen two wins for each side.

League Table Positions

Municipal Liberia sits 4th in the Primera Division overall standings with 27 points from 18 matches (7 wins, 6 draws, 5 losses). AD San Carlos is 10th with just 13 points (3 wins, 4 draws, 11 losses). The away table shows AD San Carlos in 6th with 10 points from 9 away games, while Municipal Liberia is 7th in the away standings with 9 points from 9 matches. The 14-point gap in the overall table highlights the difference in consistency this season.

Win Probability: AD San Carlos or Municipal Liberia?

Based on the odds, form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we calculate the following win probabilities: AD San Carlos has a 30% chance of winning, the draw is at 38%, and Municipal Liberia has a 32% chance. The odds imply a tight match, with the draw priced as the favorite. Municipal Liberia's superior league position and better recent form give them a marginal advantage over AD San Carlos, but the home team's strong historical H2H record at home keeps the probabilities close.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as a very even contest. The best available odds are: AD San Carlos win at 3.25, draw at 1.92, and Municipal Liberia win at 3.10. The low draw odds reflect the expectation of a tight, low-scoring match. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is a draw, with Municipal Liberia slightly more likely to edge a win than AD San Carlos. A 1-1 scoreline would fit the data patterns from both teams' recent performances.