Viking - Aalesund prediction 18 March 2026

Aalesund vs Viking prediction for the Cup match on Mar 18, 2026 at 17:00. Viking is the favorite with a 40% win probability, while Aalesund has a 30% chance. Read our betting tips and match preview.

Team Form

Aalesund enter this Cup tie in solid form, having recorded three wins and two draws in their last five outings. Their recent results include a 3-0 away victory over Kristiansund, a 2-2 home draw with Ham-Kam, a 1-1 draw at Tromso, a 2-1 home win against Brann, and a thrilling 3-2 win at Rosenborg. Across these matches, Aalesund scored 11 goals and conceded 6, showcasing an effective attack but some defensive vulnerabilities.

Viking are also in excellent form, with three consecutive wins following two draws. Their last five matches: a 1-1 draw at Sonderjyske, a 0-0 stalemate at Lillestrom, a 2-1 win at Kristiansund, a 6-3 home demolition of IK Start, and a 2-0 away victory over KFUM Oslo. They have netted 11 goals and allowed only 5, demonstrating a balanced and potent side. The recent run of three straight wins, all by at least two goals, gives them a psychological edge.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these Norwegian clubs leans slightly in Viking's favor. In the last four meetings, Viking have won three times: 1-0 at Aalesund (Jun 2025), 4-0 at Aalesund (Nov 2023), and 3-1 at home (Jul 2023). Aalesund's lone win came in Oct 2022 with a 2-1 home victory. Overall, across 19 encounters, Aalesund has 6 wins, Viking 7, and 6 draws. Recent history clearly favors Viking, especially when playing at home.

Win Probability: Aalesund or Viking?

Based on the available data, we calculate the following win probabilities for this match: Aalesund 30%, draw 30%, Viking 40%. This estimation factors in the teams' comparable recent form, the head-to-head record, and the venue. The match is being played at Lyse Arena in Stavanger, which is Viking's home ground, giving them a significant home advantage. The 40% probability for Viking reflects their superior head-to-head record and home advantage, while Aalesund's 30% chance acknowledges their ability to win on the road as seen in recent away wins at Rosenborg and Kristiansund. Viking's recent head-to-head dominance and slightly better defensive record further support their status as favorites.

Odds & Match Prediction

Detailed odds for this match are not provided in the current data. However, based on statistical analysis and historical pricing, bookmakers would likely set Viking as the favorites, with odds around 1.80-2.00 for a win. Aalesund would be underdogs at around 3.50-4.00, while the draw might be priced near 3.50. Our prediction: Viking to win. For betting tips, a straight win for Viking offers value, but a draw no bet or double chance (Viking or draw) could be safer options given the cup setting. Aalesund's attacking form means both teams to score is also a interesting market.