Valerenga - Aalesund prediction 16 July 2026

The Aalesund vs Valerenga prediction for the Eliteserien match on Jul 16, 2026, at 17:00 points to a tight contest where the visitors hold a slight edge. Despite Aalesund being listed as the home side, the game takes place at Intility Arena in Oslo – Valerenga’s home ground – which significantly boosts their chances. Our win probability analysis gives Valerenga a 40% chance, Aalesund 30%, and the draw 30%.

Team Form

Aalesund come into this match unbeaten in their last five outings (D-W-D-D-W). They drew 2-2 with Molde on Jul 11, beat Kristiansund 3-0 in a friendly, and shared points with Ham-Kam (2-2) and Tromso (1-1). A 2-1 win over Brann on May 20 completes a solid, if draw-heavy, run.

Valerenga’s recent form is more mixed (L-W-D-W-L). They suffered a heavy 4-0 defeat at Tromso on Jul 11, bounced back with a 3-1 friendly win over Fredrikstad, drew 1-1 with IFK Goteborg, beat Kristiansund 3-1, and lost 2-0 at IK Start. Inconsistency has been their biggest issue.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favours Valerenga. In the last 12 meetings, Aalesund have never won – there have been 5 draws and 7 Valerenga victories. The most recent encounters underline this dominance: Valerenga won 3-1 in September 2023, 1-0 in April 2023, and 4-0 in August 2022. The only recent draw was a 2-2 result in June 2022. Aalesund have failed to beat Valerenga in any competitive fixture over the last decade.

League Table Positions

Both sides are struggling in the lower half of the Eliteserien. Valerenga sit 11th with 14 points from 12 games (4 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses), while Aalesund are 12th with 12 points (2 wins, 6 draws, 4 losses). Aalesund have drawn half their matches, which explains their low win count. Valerenga have a slightly better goal difference but have conceded 21 goals, showing defensive frailties.

Win Probability: Aalesund or Valerenga?

We started with the bookmaker odds (home 1.78, draw 2.42, away 3.70) and removed the margin to get fair probabilities: Aalesund 45.1%, draw 33.2%, Valerenga 21.7%. However, those odds assume Aalesund have home advantage – but the match is at Intility Arena, Valerenga’s stadium. Factoring in the venue switch and a one-sided H2H record (0 Aalesund wins in 12), we adjusted the numbers. Our final win probability is: Aalesund 30%, draw 30%, Valerenga 40%. Valerenga are the more likely winners based on all available data.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds show Aalesund at 1.78, the draw at 2.42, and Valerenga at 3.70. Bookmakers see Aalesund as the favourite, but that pricing does not fully reflect the ground reality. With Valerenga effectively playing at home and their historical edge, the away win offers value. Our prediction: a draw or a narrow Valerenga victory is the most probable outcome. A low-scoring affair is likely, given both teams’ recent goal tallies.