AaB Aalborg - Hillerod prediction 24 July 2026

Our AaB Aalborg vs Hillerod prediction for the 1st Division match on Feb 27 at 18:00 is that AaB Aalborg has a 55% chance of winning, based on their dominant head-to-head record and stronger league position. This Danish 1st Division fixture brings together two sides with contrasting recent form, and the stats point towards a home advantage.

Team Form

AaB Aalborg come into this match with a mixed run of results. Their last five matches read W, W, L, D, L. In their most recent outing, a Friendly Clubs match on Jul 03, they secured a convincing 3-1 home win against Viborg. In league action, they defeated HB Koge 1-0 at home on May 30, but suffered a heavy 5-0 away loss to Aarhus Fremad on May 22.

Hillerod's recent form has been slightly less stable with a sequence of L, W, L, D, L. A 2-0 friendly defeat at Odense BK on Jul 04 was followed by a 2-1 home league win over Hvidovre on May 31. Away from home in the league, they have struggled, losing 3-0 to Kolding IF and 4-0 to AC Horsens in their last two road trips.

Head-to-Head Record

The all-time head-to-head record heavily favors the home side. In five previous meetings, AaB Aalborg have won three, with two draws, and Hillerod have no wins. The most recent clash, on Feb 27, 2026, ended in a thrilling 3-3 draw. Before that, AaB Aalborg secured a 4-1 away friendly win on Jul 04, 2025, and a 2-1 league win on Mar 16, 2024. The only other home fixture for AaB, on Aug 27, 2023, resulted in a comfortable 3-0 victory.

League Table Positions

In the overall 1st Division standings, Hillerod sit in 3rd place with 37 points from 22 matches, while AaB Aalborg are in 7th with 28 points. However, the home and away splits reveal a different story. At home, AaB Aalborg rank 5th with 18 points from 11 games, showing a solid scoring record of 21 goals. Hillerod's away form places them 4th, with 16 points from 11 matches, but they have conceded 19 goals on the road, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities that AaB can exploit.

Win Probability: AaB Aalborg or Hillerod?

Analyzing all available data, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: AaB Aalborg: 55%, Draw: 25%, Hillerod: 20%. Despite the league table showing Hillerod nine points ahead, this probability model adjusts for the specific match context. AaB Aalborg's perfect home record against Hillerod (1 win, 1 draw), the overall H2H dominance (3W-2D-0L), and Hillerod's poor recent away form (two heavy defeats) tilt the balance. While league standing gives Hillerod some credit, the historical matchup and home advantage make AaB Aalborg the clear favorite to secure the victory.

Odds & Match Prediction

Specific 1X2 odds for this match are not available in the current data. Based on the statistics, bookmakers would likely view AaB Aalborg as the favorite given their strong H2H record and home advantage. Taking into account AaB's ability to score at home and Hillerod's recent defensive struggles on the road, the final prediction is a narrow win for the home side. The safe betting tip points towards a home victory, but considering both teams' scoring records, the over on goals could also offer value.