UD Santarem - 1 Dezembro prediction 4 January 2026
UD Santarem
1 DezembroUD Santarem
VarzimAmaranteUD SantaremCF Os BelenensesUD SantaremUD SantaremAcademica CoimbraVitoria Guimaraes BUD SantaremUD SantaremTrofenseMafraUD SantaremVarzimUD SantaremUD SantaremAmaranteUD SantaremCF Os BelenensesUD SantaremMafraAcademica CoimbraUD SantaremUD SantaremVitoria Guimaraes BTrofenseUD SantaremUD SantaremMafra1 DezembroCaldasAtletico Clube de Portugal1 Dezembro1 DezembroAmoraLusitano Ginasio Clube Evora1 Dezembro1 DezembroSporting CovilhaAmora1 DezembroSporting Covilha1 Dezembro1 DezembroLusitano Ginasio Clube Evora1 DezembroAtletico Clube de PortugalCaldas1 Dezembro1 DezembroLusitano Ginasio Clube EvoraCF Os Belenenses1 Dezembro1 DezembroMafraUD Santarem1 Dezembro1 DezembroAtletico Clube de PortugalUD Santarem1 Dezembro1 DezembroUD SantaremUD Santarem1 Dezembro1 DezembroUD SantaremUD Santarem1 Dezembro1 DezembroUD SantaremUD Santarem1 Dezembro| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CF Os Belenenses | 18 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 27:16 | +11 | 38 |
| 2 |  Mafra | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 28:19 | +9 | 34 |
| 3 |  Vitoria Guimaraes B | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 20:16 | +4 | 29 |
| 4 |  Amarante | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 19:17 | +2 | 29 |
| 5 |  Academica Coimbra | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 29:18 | +11 | 28 |
| 6 |  Trofense | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 23:15 | +8 | 28 |
| 7 |  Varzim | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 26:17 | +9 | 28 |
| 8 |  Paredes | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 22:12 | +10 | 27 |
| 9 | UD Santarem | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 15:14 | +1 | 25 |
| 10 |  Sporting Braga B | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 16:17 | -1 | 25 |
| 11 |  Fafe | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 23:21 | +2 | 24 |
| 12 |  Lusitano Ginasio Clube Evora | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 19:19 | 0 | 22 |
| 13 |  Atletico Clube de Portugal | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 16:17 | -1 | 22 |
| 14 |  Amora | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 19:22 | -3 | 21 |
| 15 |  Caldas | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 17:23 | -6 | 21 |
| 16 |  AD Marco 09 | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 15:22 | -7 | 19 |
| 17 | 1 Dezembro | 18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 13:21 | -8 | 17 |
| 18 |  Sao Joao Ver | 18 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 11:26 | -15 | 14 |
| 19 |  Sporting Covilha | 18 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 10:24 | -14 | 14 |
| 20 |  AD Sanjoanense | 18 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 20:32 | -12 | 13 |
1 Dezembro vs UD Santarem Prediction (Jan 04)
Our 1 Dezembro vs UD Santarem prediction for the Tercera Liga match on Jan 04, 2026, at 11:00 UTC points to UD Santarem as the favorite with a 40% win probability. 1 Dezembro has a 30% chance, while the draw stands at 30%. Below we break down the team form, head-to-head record, and league standings to explain this forecast.
Team Form
1 Dezembro's recent form is mixed, with two wins followed by three losses in their last five matches (W, W, L, L, L). Their most recent result was a 2-1 home victory against Caldas on May 02, but prior to that they suffered defeats to Amora (0-1) and Sporting Covilha (1-2).
UD Santarem, on the other hand, are draw specialists. Their last five outings read D, L, D, D, D, with the only loss coming away at Amarante (0-1). They have drawn four of those five, including a 2-2 stalemate with Varzim and a 1-1 draw at CF Os Belenenses.
Head-to-Head Record
The head-to-head record heavily favors UD Santarem. In seven previous meetings, 1 Dezembro have never won (0 victories), while UD Santarem have claimed 4 wins and 3 draws. The most recent clash on Jan 04, 2026, ended 1-0 to UD Santarem. Earlier encounters include a 0-0 draw in September 2025 and another 1-0 win for UD Santarem in January 2025.
League Table Positions
UD Santarem sit 9th in the Tercera Liga overall standings with 25 points from 18 matches (6 wins, 7 draws, 5 losses). 1 Dezembro are outside the top 12, indicating a significant gap in league performance. UD Santarem's away record shows 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, placing them 6th in the away table.
Win Probability: 1 Dezembro or UD Santarem?
Based on the available data, we calculate the following win probabilities:
- 1 Dezembro win: 30%
- Draw: 30%
- UD Santarem win: 40%
UD Santarem's dominance in head-to-head meetings (4 wins, 0 losses for 1 Dezembro), their higher league position, and their resilience (only one loss in five) make them the likelier winners. 1 Dezembro's home advantage and their recent home win offer some hope, but their overall form and historical struggles against this opponent reduce their chances. The draw probability is elevated due to UD Santarem's tendency to share points.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers' odds are not available for this fixture. However, based on the stats, UD Santarem emerges as the favorite. Our final prediction: UD Santarem to win, but a draw is a very realistic outcome given their recent run of stalemates. A 1-0 or 1-1 scoreline appears most likely.
1 Dezembro vs UD Santarem — FAQ
- Who will win 1 Dezembro vs UD Santarem?
- UD Santarem has a 40% chance to win, while 1 Dezembro has a 30% chance and the draw is at 30%. UD Santarem's strong head-to-head record and higher league position give them the edge.
- What is the win probability for UD Santarem?
- UD Santarem has a 40% probability of winning. This is based on their 4 wins and 0 losses against 1 Dezembro in seven meetings, plus a better league standing (9th vs outside top 12).
- When is the 1 Dezembro vs UD Santarem match?
- The match is on Jan 04, 2026, at 11:00 UTC. It is a Tercera Liga fixture in Portugal.
- What are the odds for the match?
- Odds from bookmakers are not currently available. Statistical analysis suggests UD Santarem is the favorite with a 40% win probability, followed by a 30% chance for both a home win and a draw.
- What is the head-to-head record between 1 Dezembro and UD Santarem?
- In seven previous meetings, 1 Dezembro have 0 wins, 3 draws, and UD Santarem have 4 wins. The most recent match on Jan 04, 2026, ended 1-0 to UD Santarem.